Semiconductor Shortage = Trouble

[mj22]

BWHAHAHAhA! awesome post carter, i would have liked it but no like button. I love your humor bro.

 

[DanielS]

When do the radical feminists get drafted and sent to the line? It's only fair they go first after all the progress they've made.

 

[bernard]

When do the radical feminists get drafted and sent to the line? It's only fair they go first after all the progress they've made.

Do you guys remember when the internet was still free and memelords made Trump president?

 

[CCarter]

AT WAR: Here Comes The Costs

"It is absolutely clear that a rejection of Russian oil would lead to catastrophic consequences for the global market," Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Monday in an address on state television.

"The surge in prices would be unpredictable. It would be $300 per barrel if not more."

[..]

Germany, the Netherlands and the U.K. have appeared to back away from a coordinated Western embargo on Russian energy exports, however.

[..]

Russia is the world’s third-largest oil producer, behind the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, and the world’s largest exporter of crude to global markets. It is also a major producer and exporter of natural gas.

The European Union receives around 40% of its gas via Russian pipelines, several of which run through Ukraine.

Novak: 'We are ready for it'

"European politicians need to honestly warn their citizens and consumers what to expect," Novak said.

"If you want to reject energy supplies from Russia, go ahead. We are ready for it. We know where we could redirect the volumes to," he added, without providing further details.

Oil prices soared to 14-year highs on Monday, as energy market participants focused on the prospect of full sanctions on Russia’s energy exports.

Source: Russia warns of $300 oil, threatens to cut off European gas if West bans energy imports​

And here we go...

Biden on ban of Russian oil imports: "Defending freedom is going to cost"

US President Joe Biden said banning Russian oil, natural gas and coal imports to the United States will have a price in the country, but lawmakers are united in taking action.

"There will be cost as well here in the United States. I said I would level with the American people from the beginning, and when I first spoke to this, I said defending freedom is going to cost, it's going to cost us as well in the United States. Republicans and Democrats understand that alike. Republicans and Democrats alike are clear we must do this," the President said from the White House.​

Source: Russia invades Ukraine​

It's going to get uglier and uglier folks. I suggest you guys start making plans to hunker down and ride this out globally. Prices are going to go through the roof for everything.

Good luck and Godspeed.

 

[NetZero]

I ignored all the Dr. Doom when this thread started.

But, now the people I listen to (financial). Make your 401k moves now they are going (gold, bonds, cash). It's too late for Russia, even if there is a peace deal somehow, they are Rekt.

I'm agreeing with CC. it's going to get really ugly.

Good luck everyone

 

[illmasterj]

Imagine running an airline these days. If covid didn't crush you, now as you scramble to rebuild your business oil prices are skyrocketing. Thank god for government hand outs I guess.

 

[CCarter]

$2.6 trillion Drop In Bond Market (Single Day)

This was unexpected.

The Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index, a benchmark for government and corporate debt total returns, has fallen 11% from a high in January 2021. That's the biggest decline from a peak in data stretching back to 1990, surpassing a 10.8% drawdown during the financial crisis in 2008. It equates to a drop in the index market value of about $2.6 trillion, worse than about $2 trillion in 2008.

[..]

That's a blow to money managers accustomed to years of consistent gains, backstopped by loose monetary policy. The slump also poses a particular threat to the expanding elderly population in many major economies, given retirees are often heavily reliant on fixed-income investments.

[..]

The Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points last week, and Chair Jerome Powell said this week it is prepared to increase them by a half percentage-point at its next meeting if needed. His hawkish tone prompted traders to rapidly ratchet up estimates for how aggressively the Fed will tighten monetary policy this year, with money markets pricing in the equivalent of 7 more quarter-point hikes by the end of 2022.

Source: This Is Now The Worst Drawdown on Record for Global Fixed Income​

--

To translate this, last time we checked in with our heroes here: Planned Rate Hikes

We were estimating 3 rate hikes, then within 12 hours we got estimates of 4, and then one hour later up-to 5 rate hikes for 2022. And to say 5 rate hikes in a year is insane is an understatement of biblical proportion.

AND now, fast forward 2 months they are talking about 7 MORE rate hikes - we've already got 1, so that's a total of 8 - for the slow kids in the back of the class.

And in that same post I stated: "I feel like $6-8 gas is in the future before the 2024 elections"

Well I clearly under-estimated the Brandon administration's incompetence.

Story: Los Angeles becomes 1st in US to reach $6 gas average

Rideshare companies Uber and Lyft are rolling out fuel surcharges to help offset the rising cost of gas.

Uber's new fee goes into effect on March 16, which adds about 45 to 50 cents for each trip depending on distance and 35 to 45 cents for each UberEats delivery.​

--

So my thing is, okay, we all KNOW there is an iceberg. Everyone from the top to the bottom acknowledge that. But it keeps getting closer and closer - yet we are not correcting course.

Here is the curious thing about the bond drop, no major mainstream news outlet is reporting it, it's not even on Bloomberg's homepage! It's buried deep in Yahoo of all places. Yahoo! How does a $2.6 trillion drop just go un-noticed.

I hate to say this but there is something sinister going on around here. Unless tomorrow morning everyone is going to suddenly be reporting on this, "they" are pulling the wool over the masses' eyes.

It makes no sense that $2.6 trillion evaporates in a day and no one is reporting on it.

Then you have to ask yourself "What are they NOT reporting?" Not even making Yahoo.

I know I'm crazy but I'm not insane.

 

[harrytwatter]

So my thing is, okay, we all KNOW there is an iceberg. Everyone from the top to the bottom acknowledge that. But it keeps getting closer and closer - yet we are not correcting course.

I think the iceberg was identified when they realized how big COVID-19 was. At that moment they had a choice to make, do nothing and let people and markets react and ride the roller coaster of a once-in-a-lifetime pandemic OR take "proactive" action to try to insulate people, businesses, and markets.

A similar choice was made with the virus itself, let it spread and let people react (herd immunity position) or actively try to stop the spread via lockdowns, masks, and vaccination.

In both instances their choice to be proactive was obvious and now we're paying the price, which makes sense why nobody wants to talk about it. It's odd, how many of today's problems are Jerome Powell's fault yet the guy sheds criticism like Fauci sheds congressional inquiries. Stunning really...

Seeing FT and Bloomberg now ranking for this news. Did a couple vague searches, they might have been slow to the punch.

I would agree though, there are too many identical headlines among unrelated media outlets too frequently for it to be entirely coincidence. Hopefully this post doesn't get censored..their new favorite tool.

 

[CCarter]

This is actually pretty serious.

Biden Says to Expect ‘Real’ Food Shortages

When "leaders" preempt negative news of this magnitude it usually means it's going to be worse than expected:

“It’s going to be real,” Biden said at a news conference in Brussels. “The price of the sanctions is not just imposed upon Russia. It’s imposed upon an awful lot of countries as well, including European countries and our country as well.”

Ukraine and Russia are both major producers of wheat, in particular, and Kyiv’s government has already warned that the country’s planting and harvest have been severely disrupted by the war.

Biden said that at the G-7 summit in Brussels earlier that he and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau both discussed increasing their nation’s agricultural production to try to make up for shortfalls. Biden said he’s also urging all nations including those in Europe to drop trade restrictions that could restrict exports of food.

Source: Biden Says to Expect ‘Real’ Food Shortages Due to Ukraine War​

--

The shelves at stores are already empty due to the Brandon administration's incompetence of simply MOVING goods from shipping containers to trucks. The goods are literally in port waiting.

“As of this morning, we have about 23,000 import containers at the terminals - about 8,000 of which are 15 days or more dwell times. That’s unheard of,” Newsome said. “We used to think of dwell times as three and a half to four days.”

Shipping backlog expected to continue for months​

That was South Carolina, not even Los Angeles (location of the USA's busiest ports).

But when there is no FOOD, that's a completely different reality. The worse thing after that is no water. Electricity we can do without, but water and food are part of simple core human survival.

What you can expect in the Blue States: Riots.

That's clear as day, cause no one is armed in blue states. California has pretty much made everything illegal except crime.

Coco-Cola said they'll have shortages all throughout the year cause, check this out I'm not even joking - supply of Carbon Dioxide is down. This gas ever living human breathes out daily.

Timber is down so less toilet paper - that fight is coming again. Even aluminum is in short supply. This was all BEFORE the war.

Notice the dude talks about wheat - Ukraine and Russia are major producers of wheat. That video was created before the war.

If you have time to listen to this in the background, you might want to, to really understand what's about to happen:

I'm probably not going to eat any wagyu anytime this century...

I strongly suggest you guys stock up on meat, rice, canned goods, toilet paper and whatever else can be frozen for long periods of time. I'm not a prepper - but it looks like those knucklehead might have been right.

 

[NetZero]

Russia is now North Korea so offline oil, natural gas for Europe, fertilizer, wheat, steel, aluminum, copper, palladium and uranium. If your in the U.S. we will be fine as we produce our own oil and Biden can enact a export ban this year. We also have plenty of food, just prices will go up 4x. But, if your in Europe, Middle East, China, Africa then CC's prepping advice is mandatory. All taking place in a couple months, even though eye of storm with stock market and crypto is all bullish. We are in for a epic storm, and I thought 2020 was the forgotten year.

 

[harrytwatter]

Is it going to take place next month? Wheat is harvested and stored the prior year, so wouldn't the disruption happening with planting in Ukraine now impact actual supply in 2023?

I think meat in the U.S should be ok too? We produce 20% of the worlds beef yet account for 4% of global population. Cattle are fed almost exclusively corn, which we produce plenty of domestically to not be impacted by Ukraine. According to Joe Rogan you can live on that shit alone?

No doubt inflation will continue and some select price spikes in various commodities as panic buyers (consumer and investor alike) do what they do. The U.S has a $1.1B trade surplus with Ukraine, importing a mere $1.3B in goods. China, Poland and Russia are by far their biggest importing partners, 2/3rds of those "we" are happy to see restricted in supply of goods. EU can float Poland while we squeeze Russia directly and China to potentially be a big boy and take some action.

Every action the U.S has taken thus far strongly indicates this is yet another complicated, long-in-development coup plot against Putin. That's what I see as the inevitable long-term end game, why the U.S is so giddy about Russia being bogged down in a "Afghani style insurgency", a worthless ruble, and a deep state ready to pave the way in gold for any FSB head brave enough to drop a little radioactive something something in Puty's vodka.

Not advocating, just feel like this is where the U.S wants to go given its track record with foreign intervention and installation of friendly dictators around the world.

 

[zelch]

Every action the U.S has taken thus far strongly indicates this is yet another complicated, long-in-development coup plot against Putin.

what do you mean

 

[harrytwatter]

That's how coups work. Trigger widespread social unrest, bribe, train, and encourage the opposition, recognize new name when they overthrow existing name.

The strategy for Russia looks roughly like this: do everything to damage domestic confidence in Putin (call him a boogeyman, maintain cold war era hostilities, push your military up to his borders via NATO expansion) and publicly signal that if overthrown a new pro-west leader would be welcomed with open arms and riches (sanctions lifted, assets unfrozen for new leader).

Then implement sanctions, freeze assets, seize yachts, put pressure on Russian people to make them uncomfortable, but most importantly, pressure the oligarchs financially as they have the most in common with us (west). It's the ruling elite class that will generally fund a coup d'état.

If you can't enjoy your wealth domestically, and you are bared from enjoying it in the U.S or E.U, then you might be more willing to move money to people who will move the person blocking your freedom from your path, i.e Vladimir Putin.

This war was not a surprise nor is it about dEmoCracY. We saw this Ukraine conflict coming a decade ago, so we knew this would happen and continued NATO expansion anyways. One must ask why? The logical answer would seem to be to provoke Putin into a conflict that would ultimately weaken the Russian state and his legitimacy domestically and globally.

We know there are anti-war elements within the FSB, I wouldn't be surprised if some of them had large offshore bank accounts filled with USD. There are also decades worth of brutalized political opponents salivating over the blood in the water and potential for regime change. Either way, protecting Zelensky is an obvious way to win western favor.

Also, any time I start to see legacy media publishers all running similar versions of a poorly supported story I assume state seeding of said story:

• https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...ace-Ukrainian-intelligence-officials-say.html
• https://nypost.com/2022/03/20/russian-elites-planning-to-overthrow-putin/
• https://thehill.com/opinion/nationa...y-should-overthrow-putin-for-russias-sake-and
• https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-putin-war-overthrown-1691754
• https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevef...ine-trigger-putins-overthrow/?sh=25ca50e11816
• https://www.theguardian.com/comment...pple-tyrant-putin-internal-applicants-welcome (note: "Internal Applicants Welcome" lol...not even hiding it)
• https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-putin-invasion-assassination-overthrow-1685204
• https://www.businessinsider.com/possibility-of-putin-coup-rising-ukraine-invasion-2022-2

Obviously this is all conjecture, I don't have access to any classified information, but that's the only way I see this playing out. Either Putin get's toppled to end the war, or the war becomes protracted, he is forced to concede, and is then ousted based off domestic sentiment from that defeat.

The goal is obvious; Putin cannot stay in power. How we get there is less certain but the destination is fast approaching. First E.Germany, then western soviet block, then Russia itself via Ukraine, then with friendly India on the south, S.Korea, Japan, and Taiwan on the east and bam, you got yourself a neatly "contained" China!

 

[Magister]

@harrytwatter I understand your point but I don't see this playing out like that.

The main goal here is not Putin but gas and oil supplies and China.

When the war started polls on Putin's approval jumped. He is now at 70%.

The Russian economy is doing okay. Ruble got back where it was and they are pressuring EU to pay gas in rubles. Mexico, India, Brazil, China, Saudi Arabia and other countries are all still trading with Russia.

But they saw that Afghanistan, Venezuela and now Russian dollar reserves got frozen, so if you are a president of Brazil, would you try to diversify your foreign reserves or would you leave it at the will of Biden?

Even if this war doesn't go as planned, the opposition to Putin is all anti-west. Navalny is doing 8 years now. Poor guy.

And China is doing some lockdowns. They say it's because of Covid but is it?

 

[harrytwatter]

I don't disagree with anything you've said, nor was my last response designed to be a resolute dictation of a future outcome but more of a "what I suspect is driving U.S policy at this time". Just because the deep state wants Putin overthrown doesn't mean it will actually happen, Castro is proof point.

I think the impact on oil prices was simply a combination of the consequence of MBS getting revenge for western cold shoulders and Khashoggi condemnation, drastic moves like sanctions and oil executives taking the opportunity within the crisis to raise prices as well.

Also, at least with the historical U.S-backed coups in Central and South America, widespread public disapproval of existing heads of state was not necessarily a pre-requisite for overthrow. It actually seems the opposite was more common, with the U.S supporting primarily military overthrows against populist leaders. I suspect that's what the CIA is thinking with Russia, if they make lives hell enough for oligarchs and elites that they'll eventually green-light an overthrow from somewhere within Russia's military.

The impetus? Well the Democrat base has been playing cold war since Hilary got spurned so I think there is an element of vengeance, but to get the intelligentsia on-board I imagine some kind of long-term China containment strategy is at play..which is why China is floating Russia.

Russia is China's Ukraine (buffer territory).

 

[Magister]

Yea we agree. China's Achilles heel can be energy. If the US get its hands on Russian gas and oil, it will control China.

Also, they might be pressuring Russia to turn their back on China.

Anyways, I just hope we are very far from a nuclear option. And I believe that time is not on the western side.

There is no other way to lower this inflation than the stock crash. And Fed is raising rates just to seem like they are doing something about this huge inflation. And when people realize that inflation is not going away without real action and huge rates, then the music will stop.

 

[harrytwatter]

I think we will get there, the market will correct despite all the money they've lazily tried to throw at the problem these last few years because it's now obvious that was ineffective. I imagine the administration will be accepting of a brutal recession because they already know they'll get slaughtered at midterms regardless. Once the housing bubble pops (which has already started) then other corrections should follow. I'm excited.

 

[illmasterj]

What's the play? The last few years cash has been scary as it inflates away into thin air.

Is now the time for cash again?

 

[CCarter]

Russian Ruble Recovers

Source: RUB to USD Currency Chart

What’s become clear is that despite an incredibly wide-ranging package of sanctions on the Russian government and its oligarchs, and an exodus of foreign businesses, the actions are largely toothless if foreigners keep guzzling Russian oil and natural gas -- supporting the ruble by stocking Putin’s coffers.

[..]

Even as Russia remains mostly cut off otherwise from the global economy, Bloomberg Economics expects the country will earn nearly $321 billion from energy exports this year, up more than a third from 2021.

[..]

Still, it’s hard to ignore the lifeline other nations are tossing Putin by purchasing his country’s oil and gas. Doing so gives Russia a current-account surplus -- economics jargon for exporting more than you import, which tends to lift a the country’s currency -- and undermines the attempt to pummel Russia with sanctions.


Source: Mocked as ‘Rubble’ by Biden, Russia’s Ruble Comes Back​

--

Like I said at the start of the AT WAR post: how are you going to go to stop a country who's fuel you need?

 

[NetZero]

I don't know what China is doing except WTF https://www.digitaljournal.com/worl...ng-as-global-commercial-hub-paralysed/article This is not even the food shortage from Ukraine/Russia grain off the worldwide distribution.

 

[harrytwatter]

Westerners struggle to understand Asia because the social contract between government and citizens is entirely different. In the west, America in particular we have a bootstrap or die mentality with the government really only serving one role and that is national defense (after self-enrichment of course).

In Asia there still exists a contract between citizens and their elected leaders. Their whole education system revolves around endless study to achieve a position of authority. This is to say meritocracy still exists. On the flip side, if you are shown publicly to have errored you are often swiftly removed from power, and if your error is large enough, you will literally have to kneel on the ground and beg for the publics forgiveness, televised nationwide.

China, Taiwan, HK, they've had stringent zero-COVID policies from day one because this wasn't their first rodeo. They were successful in combatting SARS and thus had no reason to believe they couldn't also defeat COVID. They have the advantage of a population that understands in many instances it is better to work in harmony vs the west's over-dependence on rugged individualism.

As such, there exists today a public expectation domestically for eastern governments to maintain these zero-COVID policies they promised and triumphed over the last couple of years. With the new Omicron sub-variants that promise has now become an impossible dream. The virus is simply too virulent to be contained, despite the most harshest and stringent of practice.

Mandatory two-week quarantines, public masking, and lockdowns never faded away in China like they have in countries with high amounts of individualism. In Asia things are opposite, it is preferred to conform to the group vs stand out from it, which has allowed these once-effective yet now futile policies to remain in place.

It sure will be interesting to see what happens as politicians realize they cannot beat the virus and will have to make a 180 degree turn in their messaging to the public. For a west used to fending for their own the "well we can't stop it you're all just going to get it" message was easily swallowed. For Chinese who have absolute faith (arguably misplaced) in their government, that will be a much more bitter pill to swallow.

 

[CCarter]

You're Already Dead.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon says he is preparing the biggest U.S. bank for an economic hurricane on the horizon and advised investors to do the same.

“You know, I said there’s storm clouds but I’m going to change it … it’s a hurricane,” Dimon said Wednesday at a financial conference in New York. While conditions seem “fine” at the moment, nobody knows if the hurricane is “a minor one or Superstorm Sandy,” he added.

“You’d better brace yourself,” Dimon told the roomful of analysts and investors. “JPMorgan is bracing ourselves and we’re going to be very conservative with our balance sheet.”

Source: Jamie Dimon says ‘brace yourself’ for an economic hurricane caused by the Fed and Ukraine war​

--

You think Jamie Dimon give a fuck about you? You're already dead. Jamie does not give a fuck about you. Jamie cares about his legacy and being right when history is written. This warning is so when history is written it will say "Dimon was right".

When the CEO of the largest US Bank gives a fucking warning about ANYTHING, you better listen.

And to those buttcoin clowns, you think margin calls were bad, wait till you understand Quantitative Tightening... Woooo-weee.

Basically what's about to happen is money is going to get harder to come by. And what does that mean? Well buttcoin people keep talking about Whales, but 70% of crypto-trading is on margins.

You think it's some Vaping Fifty Five Fifty backwards hat wearing retail investor in his mom's basement is putting in 70% margin calls? You've lost your fucking mind if you think that.

Most retail investors own less than 1 bitcoin. It's the Whales that put crypto on margin. Hell it's the Whales that even know what margin even is.

So as interest rates increase, and NOW they are doing Quantitative Tightening - that means less money for the Whales to borrow and prop-up crypto.

The crazy thing is they've been talking about having to drop the balance sheets of the Fed for 2+ years... What is about to happen shouldn't be a shock to anyone paying attention.

Obviously this is going to surprise buttcoin zealots cause they live in fairytale land, where money comes from "Whales" without knowing where the Whales get the money (margins). These are the people you are following - of course you're going to die.

What's Quantitative Tightening? Don't worry about it, you're already dead. If you didn't bother to understand what Quantitative Easing was, why the fuck should you concern yourself with Quantitative Tightening?

But don't be surprised cause of your ignorance when your gas prices go to $6, $7, $8, $9, $10 a gallon - this is the end result of printing free money. Someone has to pay the piper.

Beginning late last year with high-flying tech names, stocks have been hammered as investors prepare for the end of the Federal Reserve’s cheap money era. Inflation at multidecade highs, exacerbated by supply chain disruptions and the coronavirus pandemic, has sown fear that the Fed will inadvertently tip the economy into recession as it combats price increases.​

What were they using that "cheap money for" boss? BOSS? (I told you and gave you videos of people admitting the cheap money was used for real estate and crypto).

“Right now, it’s kind of sunny, things are doing fine, everyone thinks the Fed can handle this,” Dimon said. “That hurricane is right out there, down the road, coming our way.”

[..]

“We’ve never had QT like this, so you’re looking at something you could be writing history books on for 50 years,” Dimon said. Several aspects of quantitative easing programs “backfired,” including negative rates, which he called a “huge mistake.”​

He said they will be writing about this shit for 50 years... Do you understand how dead you are yet?

Why would the CEO of the largest bank in the USA make a statement that crazy?

Central banks “don’t have a choice because there’s too much liquidity in the system,” Dimon said, referring to the tightening actions. “They have to remove some of the liquidity to stop the speculation, reduce home prices and stuff like that.”​

What does "too much liquidity in the system" mean kids? TOO MUCH MONEY. We need to increase interest rates... (What do you think that means for the Whale in buttcoin fairytale land?)

It means you're already dead.

The other large factor worrying Dimon is the Ukraine war and its impact on commodities, including food and fuel. Oil “almost has to go up in price” because of disruptions caused by the worst European conflict since World War II, potentially hitting $150 or $175 a barrel, Dimon said.​

What happens when the price of a barrel of oil goes up boss? What happens to your gas prices??? BOSS? It means you're dead.

If prices are already starting to destroy the middle-class, what do you think HIGHER prices means for them?

The bank has shied away from servicing a lot of federal FHA loans, he said, because delinquencies could hit 5% or 10% there, “which is guaranteed to happen in a downturn,” Dimon said.​

What does that mean boss? It means real estate prices are going to drop. They are doing that INTENTIONALLY. So if you want to sell, now is the time, cause the real estate market is about to drop. They are warning you guys...

And if you don't listen you're already dead.

Your real estate is never going to be as high as it is right now within the next 10 years, minimum.

And that's not even the worse news: Treasury secretary concedes she was wrong on 'path that inflation would take'

My God, you guys really voted for this clown and his circus act. Okay.

Here we go...

"As I mentioned, there have been unanticipated and large shocks to the economy that have boosted energy and food prices and supply bottlenecks that have affected our economy badly that I didn't -- at the time -- didn't fully understand, but we recognize that now," she said.​

How you don't fully understand what free money does to people as the Treasury secretary is beyond me. Basic common sense tells you these people are going to do something stupid with it. A lot of this stuff was being warned about for months if not years on end.

Jamie Dimon isn't giving a warning out cause he likes you. He's already in his prepper yacht and sailing out to international waters when he sent you the signal that you are already dead. You think Jamie is going to be there in the same life-raft as you?

Warning you?

Alongside YOU?

 

[Hanuman]

LOL that's so much FUD.

Makes for a nice reading though

 

[mj22]

 

[CCarter]

so much FUD

Usually people make comments like that when they have no data or sources to cite. It's cause they are fearful what is being talked about is actually true. The "LOL" is a dead giveaway. That's nervousness. Hold frame next time and say nothing.

"Ignorance breed chaos, not knowledge. And we have chaos now" - Dan Peña​

The funny thing is I alway cite sources, so let's have a little fun. Here is a list of the Federal Reserve's 2022 Meeting Calendar:

- January 25-26
- March 15-16
- May 3-4
- June 14-15
- July 26-27
- September 20-21
- November 1-2
- December 13-14​

--

Let's take a look at the meeting of May 3-4's notes:

Developments in Financial Markets and Open Market Operations

The manager turned first to a discussion of monetary policy expectations in the United States. Federal Reserve communications since the March FOMC meeting were perceived as signaling a more rapid removal of policy accommodation than had been expected, resulting in significant shifts in expectations regarding the path of the federal funds rate. For the current meeting, federal funds futures implied around 50 basis points of policy rate tightening, and Open Market Desk survey respondents assigned an average probability of 80 percent to that outcome. The median Desk survey respondents also projected 50-basis-point increases in the target range at the two following meetings and another 125 basis points of increases by the middle of next year, bringing the projected midpoint of the target range to a peak of 3.13 percent—substantially higher than in previous surveys. Market participants continued to note significant uncertainty regarding the economic outlook and the degree of policy tightening ahead. This uncertainty was reflected in the dispersion in survey respondents' average probability distribution for the target range at the end of 2023.

Source: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee - May 3–4, 2022​

--

And what was the result of the May 3-4 meeting to the buttcoin market?

Interesting. That was just 50 basis points (interest rates of 0.5% increase for the slow bus kids).

And they also state they plan another 50 point increased at each of the next 2 following meetings.

Hmmmm... When is the next meeting? In 11 days.

Can't anyone guess what is going to happen to buttcoin after the next meeting? Anyone?

Well I'll put it another way, does anyone actually think that crap is going to go UP?

The government goes out of its way to tell you what they are going to do before they do it.

They are telling you they need home prices to drop cause the market is too hot. Increasing interest rates also reduce mortgage loans being take, therefore cooling off the real estate prices.

They are telling you they are increasing interest rates cause demand is too HOT.

They are purposely going to slowdown of the economy.

There is no way anyone should be surprised when real estate prices drop.

A lot of this Economics 101, if you paid attention in school, NONE of this should be surprising. I don't have a crystal ball, I just paid attention in school and read the financial papers they write.

They are warning you...