Semiconductor Shortage = Trouble

CCarter

Director
Moderator
BuSo Pro
Boot Camp
Digital Strategist
Joined
Sep 15, 2014
Messages
3,376
Likes
7,041
Degree
7
This is an interesting situation we are heading towards. As the economy is rebounding, not only is the US government printing monopoly money (21% of all the money the USA has EVER printed in HISTORY will be printed in 2021, meaning = inflation):

BqB6LLn.png

Now we've got a massive shortage of the stuff that we use to make other stuff, semiconductors.

And we can't just make more of it cause 2 suspicious fires in Japan have caused a global shockwave within the industry (they are asking the government for help - if you need to ask the government for help at this late date you're already dead).

How the fuck did we get here? "Lean Inventory" practices.

Semiconductors are in EVERYTHING, electronic. Your car probably have no less than 100 of these bad boys:

xj7ulqe.jpg


IvnceBG.jpg

When I read what was going on my heart leap out of my chest. COVID didn't have this type of impact on me. We're heading into crazy waters to say the least.

"A major example is semiconductors. Lead times for many semiconductors are one year out right now, and these devices are in just about everything we use. Business and financial media have detailed how the shortage of semiconductors has caused production cutbacks in the automotive industry: Ford, Toyota, Nissan, VW, and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (now a part of Stellantis) are among global carmakers that have scaled back output. Other carmakers have announced they’ll likely miss their 2021 targets. And it’s not just carmakers that are in trouble. The chip shortages are expected to cause widespread shortages of everything, from electronics to medical devices to technology and networking equipment.
As recently reported by Reuters, automakers and medical device manufacturers have asked the Biden administration to subsidize construction of new U.S. semiconductor manufacturing capacity. And in response to the shortages, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), the world’s largest semiconductor manufacturer, has increased its 2021 capital spending budget to $28 billion. But funding and building a new semiconductor fab is at least a five-year process.
"​

When car manufacturers have to "slow down", that's 3% of the American GDP:

"No other manufacturing sector generates as many American jobs".​

So if they are "slowing down", that's trouble, since it reverberates across the economy throughout the supply chain.

I am suspect about these fires, cause it's pretty "coincidental" GM has already shutdown some plants AND Tesla also stopped production a bit.

This is a red alert similar to "We don't have enough plastic polymers left". If you ever hear that then we're dead.

Small electronics should be somewhat fine - for now, but it's starting to feel like society is degrading at the atomic level, and at the organism level people don't feel it. We coughed, but we don't feel the sickness yet.

It's like we're actually heading toward Mad Max and some "event" is about to happen.

The really crazy part is - there is no "fast" solution to get more semiconductors going, especially if it takes 5 years to build a new factors. At that rate some of you guy's SEO project might be making $1500 a month.

PcNbcoV.jpg

--

Think long-term here, anyone selling electronics (Amazon affiliates), anything digital related will be impacted at some level. If people can't get on the internet we might as well be BirdHouseBuilding-Society.

Monitors, keyboards, laptops, phones, power units, tablets - everything that's electronic.

Is @CCarter overreacting. GM (3 plants), Tesla (Fremont was temporarily shutdown), Ford (Louisville plan is shutdown), and the big car companies are shutting down plants.

This seems like a rolling blackout scenario. I'm actually concerned cause unless new suppliers come onto the scene and one more catastrophe happens we're going back to DARKER ages. BuSo's newsletter will be delivered by ravens.

It feels like when in Atlas Shrugged, John Galt was going around shutting things down that were part of the supply chain, and slowly things were getting crippled until "temporary closed" meant permanently closed.
 

eliquid

Digital Strategist
Joined
Nov 26, 2014
Messages
908
Likes
1,929
Degree
3
Just to add...

This is why I invest in silver.

Inflation = historically people turn to metals which includes silver.

Industrial needs for silver are higher than gold too.. and guess what goes into a lot of those electrical parts? Silver. Silver is in a lot of switches, relays, etc.

Guess what we also have a shortage of atm? Silver. There was a run on it and a so called shortage has happened driving the price up. It's actually difficult for me to buy physical silver atm.

When the raw materials come up short, it trickles down to everything else.

Let pretend they are able to still make these parts, the shortage and inflation and slowdown will cause all these products we buy to increase in price. This demand will also make silver go up in price in general...

I'm waiting for metals to explode in price.

When they do, any of you with trucks better watch out for your catalytic convertors ( they contain Palladium and Rhodium and Platinum ) as thieves will start to saw them off. It only takes like 3-4 minutes to do.

Anyone around when copper exploded? People were breaking into air conditioners at your house and robbing the copper out of that. Same will happen with all precious metals soon.

Learn from the past people..
 
Last edited:

bernard

BuSo Pro
Joined
Dec 31, 2016
Messages
1,612
Likes
1,258
Degree
4
If I wasn't so disagreeable of a personality I would have joined one of those covid clans and prepared for the apocalypse. I actually went to one of those protests with clashes with the police.

If I put on my tinfoil hat and my historical research, I would say this all coincides perfectly with the idea of the World Economic Forum of the Great Reset.

Clearly, the will to build a better society does exist. We must use it to secure the Great Reset that we so badly need. That will require stronger and more effective governments, though this does not imply an ideological push for bigger ones. And it will demand private-sector engagement every step of the way.

No, the Great Reset is not a conspiracy theory. It is a playbook for the old world elites, to keep control of the 4th Industrial Revolution.

They're scared shitless of the peeples with their internets and even if they feel they reached some agreement with the Zuckerbergs of the world, they still fear them and their values.

So what is the Great Reset?

In one word: Facism.

Well, not the kind of nationalistic fascism you read about, but yes, fascism, the merger of state and corporate interest.

Some call it anarcho-tyranny. Some would call it dystopian (and not the cool sci-fi, the 1984 version).

Actually it could more accurately be called corporate-communism perhaps.

Some would call it.. Chy-na.

And it will happen as it does right now, a manufactured crisis through Covid-19.

All these shortages, they're the next step, whatever will we do? Oh wait, the government has to step in you say? And it has to be global, because we all need those transistors?

Oh right.

I see you assholes. Come at me bro.
 

CCarter

Director
Moderator
BuSo Pro
Boot Camp
Digital Strategist
Joined
Sep 15, 2014
Messages
3,376
Likes
7,041
Degree
7
It's starting: U.S. coffee roasters weigh price increases, cite shipping inflation

Shipping has been severely limited for multiple reasons. Alot of shipping is done in the airplanes on passanger flights... but what happens when there is a massive drop in passanger flights? Especially transoceanic? Costs of goods go up.

Think about it, if people can't get in and out of the UK for example, how are goods going to get in and out of the UK? Cargo ship carry certain types of goods, but they are discombobulated at the moment too, drops in demand globally means the cargo companies have to offset the losses with... higher prices in areas that are increasing demand.

We haven't even seen inflation yet. I predict that we are going to see a growing narrative of "shipping" being the cause of increased prices, rightfully so. But I am talking about everything, looking at you Amazon affiliates.

I don't see a real solution? We are already at 0% interest rates. Negative interests are worse. You put $100 into the ATM machine, only $99 makes it to your bank account. Welcome to negative interest rate environment. In that scenario banks DO NOT want you to put money and keep it in your bank accounts, they want it to circulate. Why? Cause there is TOO MUCH MONEY already. On one-side they are printing too much of it, and then people aren't taking out loans cause they are scared, and then those same people are putting more money into the banks... Fuck. Too much money means prices go up.

Wait till SAASes start charging shipping costs...
 
Joined
Jun 24, 2015
Messages
50
Likes
28
Degree
0
They would rather tear the country down with inflation than increase the interest rates. They really don't want that bubble to burst but that will happen.

The real question is WHEN, because the dollar is still the world largest reserve currency. EU and China are getting closer and the oil prices might go down again hitting petro dollar again.

Interesting times we live in. I believe that sleepy pedo Joe is the guy that everyone will point their finger to.

Fed Chair Powell's failure to deliver during his speech today - No hints at a 'Twist', refuses to speculate on repo issues, no pushback against recent bond vol, and no mention of SLR exemption - sparked chaos across all asset classes today with stocks, bonds, and gold puking as the dollar soared...


 
Last edited:

CCarter

Director
Moderator
BuSo Pro
Boot Camp
Digital Strategist
Joined
Sep 15, 2014
Messages
3,376
Likes
7,041
Degree
7
WTF.jpg

Source: Why the U.S. Debt Has Risen Dramatically Since 1929

We should have just let the banks fail, cause things got out of control quickly...

tenor.gif

At 136% GDP, to say that's a bit high would be an understatement. For comparison the EU requires countries to stay UNDER 60%. Greece peaked at 180% in 2011.

To say we are in for some interesting times in 2021 would be an understatement of biblical proportions. You guys need to be prepared otherwise you're going to be in trouble. I already renewed my passport...
 
Joined
Jun 24, 2015
Messages
50
Likes
28
Degree
0

Senate Passes $1.9 Trillion Stimulus Package; House Plans Tuesday Vote​


The package includes $1,400 checks for Americans making under $80,000 per year and couples earning less than $160,000, and extends unemployment benefits. It now heads back to the House to incorporate Senate amendments into the final bill, after which it will go to President Biden's desk for a signature before several programs are set to expire on March 14.
 
Joined
Jul 7, 2019
Messages
9
Likes
5
Degree
0
The level of demand for computing products for both enterprise and consumer is obviously over supply's wildest dreams of meeting currently, but with Samsung's new moves in fabrication, I don't have a 100% doom outlook for semiconductors. We are in a rut and it will be overcome. The "new normal" of high-priced semiconductor products is here to stay, to the benefit of AMD, Intel, Nvidia, Samsung, etc. and their investors. Related: $USD, the 2X semiconductor ETF will explode when this gets sorted.

We may need to bank on Musk and Bezos finding some mineral-rich deposits zipping about in space and bring them home to keep the fabricators going, maybe then drop $20 off a Ryzen 9. The web titans here at Builder will have to pull a early-2000s Google and scavenge thousands of old server racks, and link them into one entity to power our lightspeed landing pages.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Joined
Jun 24, 2015
Messages
50
Likes
28
Degree
0
covid%20tail%20risk.jpg



Ahead of tomorrow's Jay Powell show, 5Y inflation breakevens soared to their highest since 2008...

bfm68F3_0.jpg


 
Joined
Apr 23, 2019
Messages
181
Likes
132
Degree
1
To say we are in for some interesting times in 2021 would be an understatement of biblical proportions. You guys need to be prepared otherwise you're going to be in trouble. I already renewed my passport...​
I have no idea how to prepare, except just trying to invest in "stuff" rather than saving money.
Also don't see how renewing a passport would help. It's not just the US that will get hurt, that's for sure.
 

TheCurator

BuSo Pro
Joined
Oct 4, 2020
Messages
25
Likes
24
Degree
0
I have no idea how to prepare
Find a bunch of popular products from companies that offer payment plans. A guitar amp worth $2000 that you can finance for 2 years. Let's say $100 per month to factor in interest.

Buy 100 of them. Buy 1000 of them. How rich do you want to get?

Right now you're paying about $100 per month for something worth $2000.

Fast forward 18 months and those guitar amps are selling for $100,000 because money is almost worthless and you're still only paying $100 per month. Sell them, finish making the payments, and go buy yourself a $10,000,000 loaf of bread.
 

Stones

BuSo Pro
Joined
Nov 3, 2018
Messages
142
Likes
75
Degree
0
Fast forward 18 months and those guitar amps are selling for $100,000 because money is almost worthless and you're still only paying $100 per month. Sell them, finish making the payments, and go buy yourself a $10,000,000 loaf of bread.
Ive been reading zerohedge for years and this 'kicking the can down the road' story has been running since 08 along with the biblical crash.

Not saying it won't happen in 2021, but all the predictions so far have been wrong.

Sidenote: the food shortage stories that have been bubbling away for the last 12 months of so, seem to have hit the mainstream in the last few weeks. You can add that to your list of interesting things on the horizon.
 

secretagentdad

Crypto is Mary Kay for “tech people”
BuSo Pro
Joined
Jan 29, 2015
Messages
744
Likes
647
Degree
3
I gonna meme this one last time cuz it’s kinda an understanding shortcut. And I want more people to play with: Ludopolis (it's a resource management game)
 
Last edited by a moderator:

CCarter

Director
Moderator
BuSo Pro
Boot Camp
Digital Strategist
Joined
Sep 15, 2014
Messages
3,376
Likes
7,041
Degree
7
It's starting. It starts with the raw materials, always the lowest common denominators. Those prices increase everything up the chain starts increasing. First up: Wood

Think toys, tables, anything wood touches - several parts of homes use wood, I've never lived in a wooden house, but the roofs of some homes that don't have turrets on top are made of wood. Everything is made of concrete down here because one hurricane and those wooden homes are rubble. See Hurricane Andrew.

LINDON — Demand isn't the only thing driving up the cost of a new home. Out-of-control lumber prices have added tens of thousands of dollars to the price of construction, according to a national analysis.

"It's a unique and unprecedented time," said Caleb Williams, manager of Burton Lumber's Lindon location. "It's a volatile market that changes almost daily."

Williams said he's just as surprised as his customers to see the soaring cost of the lumber.

"We've never seen anything like this and never expected it," he said.

Since April 2020, the spike in lumber prices has increased the price of a new, single-family home by $24,386, according to the National Association of Home Builders.



..

The home building groups blamed the price increase on the "better-than-expected housing demand" during the pandemic and "unprecedented activity by the do-it-yourself segment."

Source: 'Unprecedented' lumber prices add $25K to new home cost

"unprecedented activity by the do-it-yourself segment." - Maybe...

More: Russia plans on stopping ALL lumber exports next year - they account for 12% of the global market.

Here is a great comment from Reddit on the subject:

Answer:

1. Supply issues, lumber mills and the supply chain isn't operating at 100% capacity because of Covid.

2. Increased freight prices, because freight isn't operating at 100% because of Covid and there's a lot of delays going around, for instance if a truck has to wait a few hours extra because a mill is running slightly late.

3. Low interest rates and massive amounts of money being pumped in to the economy on top of many people spending far less than usual because bars and travel is closed, this has lead to a bit of a housing boom. When people buy, they renovate.

4.
People are spending more time at home, many working remotely, they have money going unspent, they need something to do with their time so they're taking on projects such as building a new patio or renovating their home.

5. Furniture purchases, again, people are spending more time at home so they have to set up an office at home. That means office desks are pretty much sold out. But when they're spending so much time at home they also invest in furniture to increase their creature comforts a bit.

6. Calamities, you know, California Wildfires and so on. Both disrupting lumber operations and burning down homes meaning those homes have to be re-built.

7. Speculation, people are buying lumber futures and driving the price up because they know there's a supply/demand imbalance.

8. Tariffs, new tariffs on lumber imports from Canada.

So it's more or less a perfect storm of issues all helping drive the lumber price upwards.


Source: What's going on with the price of lumber?

How does this impact me? If you are selling items through Amazon affiliate program like: office desks or things that require wood you might see a slowdown and impact of sales - or just out of stock scenarios.

The good news is the housing industry is booming, people are buying more furniture for their homes since they are inside more and have money to spend since they aren't going out. That unfortunately means demand increases on one side and if the suppliers are not ready or capable, due to COVID shutdowns for example, a drying up of raw materials.

Historically the "Market Adjusts" - maybe glass desks become more popular as an alternative. But what happens when you keep printing money and throwing it at finite resources? The only solution is prices HAVE to go up, there is too much money in the system.

--

And now Biden wants $3-4 trillion MORE in spending:


WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Joe Biden will be briefed by advisers this week on infrastructure, climate and jobs proposals being considered by the White House that could collectively cost as much as $4 trillion, according to people familiar with discussions.

Biden advisers are weighing a price tag of between $3 trillion and $4 trillion for new legislative action, including repairing the country’s crumbling infrastructure and tackling climate change, one source said.

A second source said Biden advisers have a package of proposals totaling up to $3 trillion for infrastructure and other priorities they are discussing with the president this week.


Source: Biden infrastructure, jobs spending push could hit $4 trillion: source

--

And the question: Well how do I prepare? Forget about it, you're already dead. If you have to ask that question you are dead. The landscape is changing rapidly underneath your feet and things that were taken for granted are now become a reality that impacts billions of people around the world.

The internet had made everyone and everything more closer together. The advancement of technology had it possible to literally sell items around the world through a global supply chain. But when one person sneezes, more so than ever, everyone gets a cold.

Prices are going up. They have too, there is no other way.

The opportunists here know they can take advantage by playing the middle ground. The people with access to capital and banking know there are huge sums to be made, and since they are giving away money free at banks - and no one is taking the money, it's just sitting there piling up, waiting for a Scrooge McDuck to come along...

In the semiconductor example, investing in a semiconductor operation.... might be a good idea.

Turn off Netflix and take advantage of the chaos. In 5-10 years from now you'll regret not taking advantages of all these opportunities.

"From Chaos comes order" Nietzsche / Freemasonry​
 

CCarter

Director
Moderator
BuSo Pro
Boot Camp
Digital Strategist
Joined
Sep 15, 2014
Messages
3,376
Likes
7,041
Degree
7
It's interesting to see how the weird topics I talk about here start getting traction by big media. Really random shit I talk about - I would say 99% of a ton of you are confused to the reasoning for talking about Semiconductors, still.

To translate: "The core fabric of society is changing at an increasing rapid pace resulting in the dinosaurs of the previous era being replaced by swinging monkeys. YOU should be that monkey. THIS IS IT! YOU have to watch for opportunities to take advantages of these changes - that's where the money is made: spotting opportunities and taking action."​

"You're a bunch of bloated dinosaurs who didn't even notice the monkeys swinging by till yesterday." - Succession​

I'm that guy in the movies that first moves far away from the problem, and THEN starts warning people about the problem. AND then #1 people don't listen, OR #2 people don't understand OR #3 people don't think it will impact them OR #4 people don't care, until they are made to care OR #5 they think the crazy guy is exaggerating... How do those movies usually turn out though?

Now people are doing deep dive research on these topics I bring up and putting out their own version.

This is that warning from the crazy guy motherfuckers...

Z8oeaH9.png

Lumber is on there, talked about that previously. Coffee is on there, we talked about that one too. Shit it's like these authors read BuSo. :wink:

Think long and hard about this one: kids - we started with Semiconductors, that's causing some waves within the auto industry.

Look at the commodity that's highest on the above list: steel. What's a car mostly made out of? Steel, it takes up about 55% of the average car's weight.

What's going on with the steel price:

q9xO0mY.jpg

Look how many waves are hitting the process of just getting cars made.

The only solution is increasing the price.

Have you noticed that car companies don't show prices anymore? Cause of the sticker shock. They show how much you can "save" instead with rebates and stuff.

Then there is corn: that's the shit they make all your Coca-Cola drinks out of, high fructose corn syrup, am I right?

Those disgusting "Impossible burgers" they are a majority soy, from soybeans right? Even fucking Cattle is going up.

You guys haven't seen the hit yet to your wallets though. The ONLY result of these basic ingredients going up that are in your food, drinks, cars, your fucking coffee, HAS to mean that the end product will go up in price.

There is no other way to counter the increase in costs.

My question is - when have you ever seen prices that have increased turn around and decrease to their old levels?

I remember when I was in high school filling up my gas tank was less than $20. I remember when the cheapest gas went over $1 for the first time - it was shocking to the nation. People were reporting that travel industry would be hit. Decades later people adjusted to the new "norm". Even with negative oil prices gas never drop that dramatically back down. Do you think we'll ever see $1 gas? No.

Using this inflation calculator (remember kids calculators and tools create traffic - a part of that compelling content that is sticky I talk about). In 2002 I had a job flipping pizza for $9 an hour. Today that $9 is worth $13.16. The coffee shops and restaurants I go to do not pay their employees $13 an hour now AND these are people in their 20s and early 30s... Something ain't adding up.

2jt4SbB.gif

I was a teenager literally making more money than my today counterparts in their 30s. WTF. How are these fucking people fucking surviving? These people live in a weird reality I cannot comprehend.
 
Joined
Jun 5, 2020
Messages
16
Likes
10
Degree
0
Lots of talk about materials going up, which is good to be thinking about.

However, there is a compounding issue coming up as well. Higher min. wage which I am sure we all have heard about or seen.

First Move:
Higher min. wage will of course increase the cost of things, but it will also cause it's own ripple too as those now making $15 an hour ( before the min wage hike) will be looking for jobs paying $30 and demanding them. Those making $30 will be wanting to make $60 an hour... etc.

If Im making $15 an hour now, you think Im gonna let a $7 min wage person now make what I make, without me trying to move up the ladder again? Ha... Same ripple will happen all the way up.

These will be the people that aren't going to allow lower paid workers "be the same as them".

Second Move:
And it's not only about the those people who are going to job jump, but when prices do finally go up more, those making $30 an hour who didn't job jump for more wont be able to afford things and will have to job jump if they hadn't already. Workers will demand more, without actually being that more valuable.

These will be the people who get squeezed out of their lifestyle and will be forced to job jump and demand more pay.

Third Move:
And another thing.. inflation and costs had risen, but salaries and income hasn't. And it hasn't for a long time. It's way overdue as it is.

By this point, pay will either have to rise naturally without people forcing it, or those in the lower income classes will end up getting crushed. When this happens, there is no turning back.

It's like a rubber band folks, things are about to pop real hard.. and it's going to be real soon.

Nothing will be getting cheaper. Not that it ever was anyways, but the new normal is paying double/triple/quad what you use to going forward.. and many of you won't be "making more" to cover it.

COGs going up. Labor going up. What the hell you all think is going to happen?
 

CCarter

Director
Moderator
BuSo Pro
Boot Camp
Digital Strategist
Joined
Sep 15, 2014
Messages
3,376
Likes
7,041
Degree
7
The dominoes are falling:


PTIx2uY.png


In a dizzying 12-hour stretch, Honda Motor Co. said it will halt production at three plants in Japan; BMW AG cut shifts at factories in Germany and England; and Ford Motor Co. reduced its full-year earnings forecast due to the scarcity of chips it sees extending into next year. Caterpillar Inc. later flagged it may be unable to meet demand for machinery used by the construction and mining industries.

[..]

Meanwhile, companies that supply chips are reporting surging sales and pledging to invest billions to expand capacity as they struggle to keep up with demand. Qualcomm Inc., the world’s largest smartphone chipmaker, said demand for handsets is surging back as life returns to normal in some markets that had been locked down by the Covid-19 pandemic.

[..]

Tesla Inc. CEO Elon Musk earlier this week called the chip shortage a “huge problem.” NXP Semiconductors NV said it’s expecting supply to be tight all year and warned constraints for the auto industry could extend into 2022.

“There are too many uncertainties about when chip supplies will improve, and that’s making it difficult for automakers,” said Lee Han-joon, an analyst at KTB Investment & Securities Co. in Seoul.
“For semiconductor makers, the auto industry isn’t really seen as one of their key customers and that’s putting the carmakers in a much tougher position in securing supplies.”

Source: Global Chip Drought Hits Apple, BMW, Ford as Crisis Worsens

lof8f03.png


Elon: "Hello this is Elon - richest man in the world, I need chips..."

Chip Makers:

7weCOAl.gif


Elon: "Please sir... sir... hello?"

Chip Makers:

Q3uRKDV.gif



--


Ford: "The company said it expects to lose about 50% of its planned second-quarter production, up from 17% in the first quarter."

Source: Apple, Facebook, Amazon, Ford, Biden Stimulus - 5 Things You Must Know

Apple has chip problems too, bu it will only impact iPads and Macs.


Yesterday, when Apple announced its spectacular first quarter results, Ford said that it would be able to produce only half the number of cars as expected due to the global chip shortage. It's not that Apple won't be affected as the company did say that it will lose $3 billion to $4 billion in revenue during the current quarter due to the shortage of chips.

Source: Why are automakers more affected by the chip shortage than Apple?

--

tMbFWOj.gif

50% production cut isn't a joke - that's going to sting. The situation is getting worse not better. Semiconductors, hmmm.

This is CCarter reporting live from within the belly of the beast. Over and out.
 

bernard

BuSo Pro
Joined
Dec 31, 2016
Messages
1,612
Likes
1,258
Degree
4
I can't see this having any other outcome except western countries realising China isn't dependable for production anymore. They'll have to move production closer to home.
 
Joined
Dec 2, 2014
Messages
192
Likes
416
Degree
1
I for one am actually very bullish.

Technology has reshaped this world faster than most people realized and 2020 was a trigger for more realization of that.

Right now we are writing checks that would seem crazy based on the past rate of progress but the idea is the next 15 years are not going to look like anything we've ever seen in history.

My colon was removed in 2009 and I asked some doctor top of the field in 2016 if in the future maybe I'll get a new one. His response was pretty much no way, they are not even considering working on that right now. That was the pre-2020 mindset. Now all those experts are starting to realize how much progress is going to truly accelerate. I'll probably have my new colon by 2040.
 

CCarter

Director
Moderator
BuSo Pro
Boot Camp
Digital Strategist
Joined
Sep 15, 2014
Messages
3,376
Likes
7,041
Degree
7
Interesting enough there has been a massive labor-shortage across the USA. Restaurants and other jobs that require interacting with potential more humans face to face are scaring potential employees who are afraid of COVID. On-top the extended unemployment benefits till September means several would-be low-wage workers literally are making more money while unemployed than employed.

I've got 2 places I visit that literally cannot keep staff even though they customers are coming in left and right. Restaurants, coffee shops, salons, it's crazy. One owner said she would pay whatever anyone wants just as long as they have two eyes and two arms. WTF.

It's one thing to hear about it in the news, it's another when you talk one-on-one with business owners and they say they can't find anyone to do anything.

More: Montana governor ends extra unemployment payments, citing worker shortage

So here comes automation:

Orders for robots in North America, mostly the U.S., surged 20% in the first quarter compared with a year earlier and was up 16% from the same three-month period in 2019, well before the pandemic, according to the Assn. for Advancing Automation. Nearly 10,000 robots were ordered in last year’s fourth quarter, the second-best quarter ever, statistics show.

[..]

The World Economic Forum said last fall that 50% of employers plan to step up automation at their firms.

[..]

Mike Kelly, a 58-year-old native of Pittsburgh with a wife and three children, made about $25 an hour, plus health insurance and a pension plan, as a toll collector on the Pennsylvania Turnpike.

Even before the pandemic, the state had intended to install a high-tech, no-cash system in 2022. But when COVID-19 shutdowns reduced both traffic on the turnpike and the revenue it yielded, the state moved up its plans by 18 months, laying off some 500 toll collectors and support staff last June.

Kelly reacted quickly. Using his own money, he enrolled in a training course to learn how to operate big trucks and other heavy motorized equipment. Today, he’s working for the turnpike again, this time driving maintenance trucks, snowplows and other vehicles. He was reimbursed for the training. And his pay and benefits are at least equal to those from his toll booth days.

Not all of his colleagues from the toll booths have bounced back like that.

Kelly Armour, 53, was angry and bitter about the layoffs. “We gave a warm, human aspect to the job, and we were replaced by technology,” she said. “I was only essential when it suited them.

[..]

Researchers at the International Monetary Fund, in a recent paper, reported that past pandemics, including SARS in 2003 and Ebola in 2014, not only accelerated robot adoption but tended to increase inequality by displacing low-skilled workers. COVID-19 presents a similar risk, they warned.

[..]

Tyler is gearing up for what he foresees as a boom in production, once bottlenecks in shipping and the global chip shortage ease.

He’s already spent about $2 million this year for robots from Japan-based FANUC to make products for the Toyota Tundra and other vehicles. In some ways Tyler said he had no choice but to automate because fewer and fewer people want to work on the assembly line for $15 an hour, which is what he pays to start.

Had we done it manually, without automation, I’m convinced we would not have been able to find enough employees anyway,” he said.

[..]

Contributing to the problem for less-skilled workers is that the pandemic has wiped out countless small businesses.

That has given a bigger share of the market to larger firms, which can afford more automation and historically pay a smaller percentage of earnings to workers in favor of shareholders and owners.

“We can expect leaner staffing in retail stores, restaurants, auto dealerships, and meat-packing facilities, among many other places,” according to Autor and Reynolds.


Source: In the wake of COVID, employers are accelerating the use of robots. Where does that leave workers?

Well that's one solution... Something has got to give or in 2023 we'll see a collapse if we don't act fast.
 

bernard

BuSo Pro
Joined
Dec 31, 2016
Messages
1,612
Likes
1,258
Degree
4
We're going to enter our Japanese phase in the West.

They're 20 years ahead in replacing people with robots and forcing them to live in tiny apartments with little hope of a mature lifestyle.
 

Ryuzaki

お前はもう死んでいる
Moderator
BuSo Pro
Digital Strategist
Joined
Sep 3, 2014
Messages
5,015
Likes
9,609
Degree
9
I don't know if it's a labor shortage out of Covid Fears or a labor shortage due to Covid Relief. I think people are still getting $1200 a month to not work. Why would they when that beats what they'd earn otherwise. I don't think many of these people are worried about the dignity of work and self-reliance.