Semiconductor Shortage = Trouble

CCarter

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Things are getting interesting, while they print more money, devaluing the current money, that $1000 you got means you can buy a lot less now than a year ago due to inflation, it's probably worth $600. Now we are seeing the impact on increased demand for semiconductors:

TAIPEI -- Contract chipmaking giant Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. told clients Wednesday that it plans to raise prices on products by as much as 20%, in what would be the company's steepest single increase.
The price increases and the time frames for the hikes differ depending on the client, according to reports by Taiwan's Liberty Times newspaper and other media outlets. For some companies that received TSMC's notice, the hikes took effect immediately.
TSMC and other Taiwanese semiconductor companies raised chip prices by more than 10% between last fall and this spring. But with strong demand continuing to outstrip supply, TSMC decided to sharply increase prices again.
[..]
TSMC still maintained a high net profit margin of 36% during the quarter ended in June.
At the same time, "it will be very costly to manufacture in the U.S. and Japan," a member of the TSMC executive team said. The company is building a cutting-edge semiconductor facility in the U.S. state of Arizona and is considering opening its first Japanese chip plant in Kumamoto.
Major global clients such as Toyota Motor have announced production cutbacks due to the shortage of semiconductors. TSMC has responded by boosting output, but the company foresees the impact lasting until next year.

--

Well, the know they control the whole market, so now they are just here to rape. It'll be 4-5 years before we can get a new semiconductor plant in the US. When I say prices are going up for EVERYTHING, it means prices are going up for EVERYTHING.

Recall:

"Taiwanese foundries account for 63 percent of the global market and TSMC alone has a market share of 54 percent."​

In other news: China condemns US warship transit of Taiwan Strait

The US is hanging around in the Taiwan waters.

We're never going to get these semiconductors at this rate...

In other news I was driving by a McDonalds and, first time in history that I can recall, they had a big "now hiring sign", starting pay was $11. Did a bit of research and McDonalds is making it a priority to hit $15 an hour average by 2024. Source: What McDonald’s minimum wage raise says about fast-food franchise future

Obviously that will trickle down to higher prices. I read somewhere those 2 for $5 chicken sandwiches or some shit where now 2 for $6.

Another trick is to reduce the volume people are getting with goods = shrinkflation, laundry detergent is a big one that this happens to:

Ubp8DSR.jpg


cnDKQXj.jpg

Meanwhile we got the benefactors of it all coming up, zoomers:


"Gaslight the economy" - that was actually funny.

--

All this is good for us - if you pull the trigger. If you don't pull the trigger your grandkids are going to ask you 40 years from now: What did you do during the greatest dislocation of wealth in the history of the planet? "I sat with my thumbs up my ass and I watched Netflix." - Dan Peña
 

eliquid

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Things are getting interesting, while they print more money, devaluing the current money, that $1000 you got means you can buy a lot less now than a year ago due to inflation, it's probably worth $600. Now we are seeing the impact on increased demand for semiconductors:

TAIPEI -- Contract chipmaking giant Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. told clients Wednesday that it plans to raise prices on products by as much as 20%, in what would be the company's steepest single increase.
The price increases and the time frames for the hikes differ depending on the client, according to reports by Taiwan's Liberty Times newspaper and other media outlets. For some companies that received TSMC's notice, the hikes took effect immediately.
TSMC and other Taiwanese semiconductor companies raised chip prices by more than 10% between last fall and this spring. But with strong demand continuing to outstrip supply, TSMC decided to sharply increase prices again.
[..]
TSMC still maintained a high net profit margin of 36% during the quarter ended in June.
At the same time, "it will be very costly to manufacture in the U.S. and Japan," a member of the TSMC executive team said. The company is building a cutting-edge semiconductor facility in the U.S. state of Arizona and is considering opening its first Japanese chip plant in Kumamoto.
Major global clients such as Toyota Motor have announced production cutbacks due to the shortage of semiconductors. TSMC has responded by boosting output, but the company foresees the impact lasting until next year.

--

Well, the know they control the whole market, so now they are just here to rape. It'll be 4-5 years before we can get a new semiconductor plant in the US. When I say prices are going up for EVERYTHING, it means prices are going up for EVERYTHING.

Recall:

"Taiwanese foundries account for 63 percent of the global market and TSMC alone has a market share of 54 percent."​

In other news: China condemns US warship transit of Taiwan Strait

The US is hanging around in the Taiwan waters.

We're never going to get these semiconductors at this rate...

In other news I was driving by a McDonalds and, first time in history that I can recall, they had a big "now hiring sign", starting pay was $11. Did a bit of research and McDonalds is making it a priority to hit $15 an hour average by 2024. Source: What McDonald’s minimum wage raise says about fast-food franchise future

Obviously that will trickle down to higher prices. I read somewhere those 2 for $5 chicken sandwiches or some shit where now $2 for 6.

Another trick is to reduce the volume people are getting with goods = shrinkflation, laundry detergent is a big one that this happens to:

Ubp8DSR.jpg


cnDKQXj.jpg

Meanwhile we got the benefactors of it all coming up, zoomers:


"Gaslight the economy" - that was actually funny.

--

All this is good for us - if you pull the trigger. If you don't pull the trigger your grandkids are going to ask you 40 years from now: What did you do during the greatest dislocation of wealth in the history of the planet? "I sat with my thumbs up my ass and I watched Netflix." - Dan Peña

This is what people don't get.

The ones that get offended and cry out, "do I gotta be a GOP boomer for you to not attack me?" types.

The ones that defend them too.

There will always be Amazon. There will always be flights later. There will always be X Y Z.

But it's not the same 4-5 years from now as it is today. Why people can't understand this is beyond me.

If I have $1MM now in the bank, in 4-5 years it's only going to be worth $600k maybe. If I have $1MM worth of Starwoods Points/Delta Miles, they will only be worth $600k when I go to cash them in at 4-5 years, IF the program will allow me to keep them 4-5 years ( many will let those points expire ).

So while you can say... "stop consuming, take a break" and "you will always be able to fly and go on a vacation", it's not the same 4-5 years from now as it is today.

And someone might point out, "but but but eliquid, won't you still be working those 4-5 years? That $1MM will grow as you work and earn more so you would have more than $600k?"

Let's break that down:

1. If I am a W2, my rate of pay will more than likely not match inflation/greed/pandemic issues. The only way it will is if I get promoted or jump jobs. For most people, jumping jobs is how they will get the bigger pay raise. At this point in my life, I'm not looking to jump jobs and redesign my career every 12 months. As I get older, life isn't about working harder every 12 months just to get by.

2. As a 1099 freelancer, that might mean taking on more contracts and also raising my rates. In this profession, I can't beat out someone from India. Cry all that "be better, show value" stuff, but the fact remains this space gets more crowded every year and automation is coming. I'd have to redesign myself, work harder, etc just to keep up to outpace the inflation + greed + pandemic issues.

3. As a business owner, I can't say for sure my company or any will be around in 4-5 years. Maybe we are gangbusters good, maybe we are only marginally good. Maybe we break even or go under. But look at all the issues companies have today with employees not showing up for work to perform the job they were hired for. Look at all the ones that went under when COVID first hit. You must work harder to overcome these issues. Again, I don't want to keep working harder every 12 months when someone will copy me or the Chinese flu could bury all my work.

And this isn't about me personally not wanting to bust my balls harder the next few years or not wanting to adapt every 12 months, it's about wisely spending your money.

Why should I sweat and toil for 12 months to earn $1MM only to let its purchasing power erode away the next 4-5 years to almost half? Yeah, that is stupid. Stupid.

It's being a poor steward of your money.

You have to work smarter, not harder. Why work smart if you aren't getting the maximum from your efforts? If you aren't, all that hard and smart work is for nothing.

I'm not for that.
 

bernard

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You can be spiritually against the world, but still live in the world.

I'm also frequently disgusted by consumption, particularly the fad like consumption of cheap chinese plastic and clothes.

Every time I buy something online it comes with a ton of wrapping, cardboard and plastic, just read to throw out.

This feeling that @harrytwatter has is common in society, that being "full" with consumption.

As I see it, I hope, and believe, that these supply chain issues combined with growing anti-consumerism is going to shift towards "buy one in a lifetime" type product, likes our grandparents used to have.

Products will cost more, but they'll last forever, and they'll be far higher quality.

And that's a good thing for everyone except the chinese.
 
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I think society will only increase the rate at which it moves into more aware consumption. Vintage made recycling fashionable, buying quality things feels good (a quality high vs a fleeting cheap high). Fast fashion and retail are dying, the sugar rush is wearing off and we're realizing we need to eat our peas to be happy in the long run.. (https://www.therobinreport.com/finally-the-death-of-fast-fashion/)

As America burns, whether directly related to climate change or not, more people will be aware of the dangers unrestrained humanity presents to a planet with finite resources. This alone does not make one a "communist" and the more the entrenched play that lazy hand the less meaning it has.

I'm not saying it's all peaches and roses, I'm an old-school "petrol head" who sticks his nose up to Teslas and their ilk, but this is just where I see things going whether I like it or not.

A dream outcome for me would be better educated consumer that doesn't waste when they don't have to and prefers quality over immediate gratification. A return home for at least some manufacturing where "Made in the USA" tags create a premium brand image that fly-by-night outsourcers and drop shippers cannot compete with.

I am delighted when I have my suits tailored by a local tailor. I'm a glutton when I buy meats from a local butcher. I feel set for life when I buy a pair of re-craftable locally made leather boots. I like meeting the farmers that grow my food.

Most of all I realize how fortunate I am to be able to access these things and I thus dream of a future when small local businesses once again make up the backbone of America vs monopolies that grow purely due to cheap cash, low interest rates, acquisitions and protectionism vs true innovation and production quality goods and services.

Outsourcing all of our manufacturing made a lot of people jobless and a very few amount of people really rich. While initially the public thought they also benefitted I think more and more people, younger people especially, are realizing they've just been sold a bunch of cheap Chinese junk.

The kicker is these younger generations have been handed a hot pile of shit in terms of debt ratios and quality of life outlooks, so will they ever be able to buy premium priced goods over disposable goods who knows.. maybe in 20 years time we'll have all daily necessities delivered to our doors by a selection of 3 or 4 mega monopolies and it will be fantastic.

Taiwan will be interesting to watch. Sure TSMC is Taiwanese but their manufacturing is predominantly in Mainland China. So much of Taiwan's economy depends on mainland production that China really does have all the puppet strings in their hands. Taiwan's buffers, their tourism economy (decimated) and US political support are probably both weaker than ever, yet it is the lone "free" Chinese-culture society left now so who knows, maybe consolidated Japan/Korea/Western influence will shift momentum. That said, wealthy KMT-supporting elites drive Taiwan's politics and at the end of the day, nobody on that island has the appetite to actually fight China so, we're back to a slowly dying star long-game.
 

CCarter

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"If you exclude the foods that are going up in price, then we don't have inflation"...

w1l9faJ.gif

Thanks for that Joe.

--

Automakers with their semiconductor problems are back at it again, this time Chrysler, Ford, and GM have announced they are temporarily halting production, which is expected to last "only" two weeks.

"Dire signals from the "Big Three" North American automakers present yet another reminder of the current inflationary run facing President Joe Biden, the largest the United States has seen since 2008.

Chrysler, Ford, and General Motors all announced within the past week that semiconductor shortages would force the companies to temporarily halt production. Though the stoppages are expected to only last two weeks, company officials still predicted they would cause prices to rise on the remaining inventory in car lots across the country.

Furthermore, Ford announced that semiconductor shortages and lack of inventory caused car sales to plummet in August, down more than 33% from the same month last year.

[..]

The Associated Press interviewed a number of industry experts in early September who predicted that chip shortages will keep prices high well into 2023. Those predictions fall in line with comments that a supply chain engineer for Intel, the world's largest chip manufacturer, gave to the Washington Examiner in July. The engineer, who has a high degree of visibility regarding the company's supply chain discussions, suggested that even with Intel's efforts to boost production to help automotive companies, they would not be able to scale up supply to meet global demand for one to two years.

"Demand is so high," the engineer explained. "We're building this big fab we announced in Arizona. That's going to add a couple million square feet to our fab there, and we're constantly building in Oregon. But I think the timeline to be getting new tools on to expand our capacity is a couple of quarters. So, I would say our capacity isn't probably going to be able to meet customers' demand for something like a year to two years."

These new automotive concerns come as a number of Democrats have joined Republicans in voicing inflationary scruples about the Build Back Better budget reconciliation package, Biden's hallmark "human infrastructure" package worth $3.5 trillion.
"

Source: Biden's inflation woes persist with production stoppages at 'Big Three' automakers

Intel is stepping up, but at best they are thinking 2-3 years before they can START meeting demands. I'm still betting on the 5 years timeline.

--

Now for some fun. It's starting to feel like we are in Atlas Shrugged...

"The Biden administration announced new actions aimed at lowering the costs of beef, pork, and poultry, which account for more than 50% of the price increases people have seen at grocery stores in the past year.

"All together, these actions will help build a food system that works for the American people above all else," National Economic Council Director Brian Deese wrote in a statement announcing the moves. "They will support families, farmers, and workers while preventing bad actors in the supply chain from lining their pockets and getting further ahead without accountability. This will make the food system fairer and more equitable, more competitive and transparent, and more distributed and resilient against shocks. In turn, it will increase farmers’ and ranchers’ earnings, deliver greater value to workers, and offer consumers affordable, healthy food produced closer to home.""

Source: Biden administration unveils actions to lower rising meat prices amid inflation concerns


Is someone having a laugh at the American people within the Biden admin? When I read that I immediately thought of Mr. Thompson, the Head of State, in Atlas Shrugged, and his "John Galt Plan for Peace, Prosperity, and Profit":

""And I say to you: kick them in the teeth, all those doubters who're spreading disunity and fear! They told you that John Galt would never join us, didn't they? Well, here he is, in person, of his own free choice, at this table and at the head of our State! Ready, willing and able to serve the people's cause! Don't you ever again, any of you, start doubting or running or giving up!

Tomorrow is here today--and what a tomorrow! With three meals a day for everyone on earth, with a car in every garage, and with electric power given free, produced by some sort of a motor the like of which we've never seen! And all you have to do is just be patient a little while longer! Patience, faith and unity--that's the recipe for progress!

We must stand united among ourselves and united with the rest of the world, as a great big happy family, all working for the good of all! We have found a leader who will beat the record of our richest and busiest past!


It's his love for mankind that has made him come here--to serve you, protect you and take care of you! He has heard your pleas and has answered the call of our common human duty! Every man is his brother's keeper! No man is an island unto himself! And now you will hear his voice--now you will hear his own message! ... Ladies and gentlemen," he said solemnly, "John Gait--to the collective family of mankind!"

... Wow.

j4cUpwt.jpg

--

And the Chinese? I wonder what they are up to:


Fascinating...
 
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UPDATE:

Not even the ChinaFlu semi conductor shortage can stop me.

Picked her up last week just in time for my 40th :smile:

uWkV85X.jpeg


UPDATE:

Not even the ChinaFlu semi conductor shortage can stop me.

Picked her up last week just in time for my 40th :smile:

uWkV85X.jpeg
This is a picture of the model and spec not the actual car :wink:
 
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CCarter

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Reporting live from the belly of the beast - Coco-Cola lack of truck drivers, The Saudis, The Russians, less and less truck drivers globally - the perfect storm of incompetence is playing out on a national politican stage resulting in inflation only getting worse:

Catsimatidis also pointed to the shortage of truck drivers adding to his business problems.

"We have shortages in our New York stores because Coca-Cola, they can't get truck drivers to deliver into New York City," he told host Stuart Varney. "And it's a serious problem."

[..]

Catsimatidis argued higher transportation costs will be around "forever."

"Crude oil is $70 a barrel," he said. "Give me a break. Do you think it's going to go down? Do you think the Saudis, the Russians are going to accept less than $70 a barrel? It's not going to happen."

"I don't see prices going down in the near future and the price of crude oil is not going down," he added.


Source: Inflation 'here to stay': Billionaire supermarket owner

--

Already we are seeing empty shelves, and reduced inventory:

WB6LFhs.jpg


zTboLp1.jpg

--

All this comes on the heels of the holiday season. We might, for the first time in our lifetime, see lower holiday spending than the previous year simply because there is not enough "stuff" to buy. Demand is there but multiple factors continue to hinder business.

Example, China:

London (CNN Business)The vast network of ports, container vessels and trucking companies that moves goods around the world is badly tangled, and the cost of shipping is skyrocketing. That's troubling news for retailers and holiday shoppers.

More than 18 months into the pandemic, the disruption to global supply chains is getting worse, spurring shortages of consumer products and making it more expensive for companies to ship goods where they're needed.

Unresolved snags, and the emergence of new problems including the Delta variant, mean shoppers are likely to face higher prices and fewer choices this holiday season. Companies such as Adidas (ADDDF), Crocs (CROX) and Hasbro (HAS) are already warning of disruptions as they prepare for the crucial year-end period.

The latest obstacle is in China, where a terminal at the Ningbo-Zhoushan Port south of Shanghai has been shut since August 11 after a dock worker tested positive for Covid-19. Major international shipping lines, including Maersk (AMKBY), Hapag-Lloyd (HPGLY) and CMA CGM have adjusted schedules to avoid the port and are warning customers of delays.

The partial closure of the world's third busiest container port is disrupting other ports in China, stretching supply chains that were already suffering from recent problems at Yantian port, ongoing container shortages, coronavirus-related factory shutdowns in Vietnam and the lingering effects of the Suez Canal blockage in March.

Shipping companies expect the global crunch to continue. That's massively increasing the cost of moving cargo and could add to the upward pressure on consumer prices.

"We currently expect the market situation only to ease in the first quarter of 2022 at the earliest," Hapag-Lloyd chief executive Rolf Habben Jansen said in a recent statement.

The cost of shipping goods from China to North America and Europe has continued to climb over the past few months, following a spike earlier in the year, according to data from London-based Drewry Shipping.

The company's World Container Index shows that the composite cost of shipping a 40-foot container on eight major East-West routes hit $9,613 in the week to August 19, up 360% from a year ago.

The biggest price jump was along the route from Shanghai to Rotterdam in the Netherlands, with the cost of a 40-foot container soaring 659% to $13,698. Container shipping prices on routes from Shanghai to Los Angeles and New York have also jumped.

"The current historically high freight rates are caused by the fact that there is unmet demand," Soren Skou, CEO of container shipping giant Maersk, said on an earnings call this month. "There's simply not enough capacity," he added.


[..]

While a partial reopening of Yantian took only a few days, a return to normal services took nearly a month to achieve, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence Panjiva, as the congestion spilled over to other ports.

That spells trouble for retailers and consumer goods companies trying to restock inventories heading into the crucial year-end holiday shopping season. "The closure at Ningbo is now particularly sensitive as it may hold up exports for the peak season of deliveries into the US and Europe which typically arrive from September through November," S&P Global Panjiva said in a research note on August 12.

[..]

The backlog at ports will have a ripple effect on jammed warehouses and stretched road and rail capacity. Logistics networks have been running at maximum capacity for months, thanks to stimulus-fueled demand led by US consumers and a pickup in manufacturing. Truck driver shortages in the United States and United Kingdom have only exacerbated supply disruptions.

[..]

Consumer goods producers are taking drastic steps to meet demand — such as changing where products are made and moving them by plane instead of boat — but companies such as shoemaker Steve Madden (SHOO) say they're already missing out on sales because they simply don't have enough goods.

The company has moved half the production of its women's range to Mexico and Brazil from China in an attempt to shorten delivery times.


The shipping crisis is getting worse. Here's what that means for holiday shopping

I can assure you NOTHING is easing in the first quarter of 2022.

Interesting enough major companies are starting to move production from China to other regions like Mexico and Brazil, places that are closer to the USA and therefore shortening wait times. Perhaps China's time as the #1 maker of everything is coming to an end.

Over in the U.K. they can't get a hold of chicken, cause of "Brexit": Nando's closes 45 restaurants after running short of chicken

Interesting times ahead...
 

eliquid

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Coco-Cola lack of truck drivers, The Saudis, The Russians, less and less truck drivers globally

Not only is there a lack of drivers, but something many may not know of or think of.

A lack of trucks and parts for trucks ( box vans, etc too ).

I had a pallet delivered to my house the other day and talked to the semi driver about his drive in and how I was surprised they sent a 18 wheel semi of all things to deliver this pallet.

He tells me, they are using whatever trucks they can find and use atm.

That not only is there a lack of trucks ( not talking FORD's here folks ) and box vans right now, but parts are not available either for them. So when a truck breaks down, it doesn't get fixed and just sits while they grab whatever they can to keep up with deliveries.

No drivers, No trucks, No parts for trucks as they break...

Shit about to get bad.
 

bernard

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What I know is that I'm moving into affiliate niches with digital products.