Semiconductor Shortage = Trouble

CCarter

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1) I'm from the US but live abroad. Is it possible for me to get a loan with a US bank online, or would I need to do it in person?
2) I've never taken out a loan before. How likely would I be able to get a loan for $1million?
3)In the current climate, what is the general repay period for the loans?

1. During COVID banks are used to communicating with skype/zoom now, so it's more than possible. Harder if you permanently live remote, HOWEVER banks have associating/affiliate banks in different countries that help them do deals if they don't have a presence in your particular country.

No lie they are called "Affiliate banks": Affiliate

In banking, affiliate banks are popular for underwriting securities and entering foreign markets where other banks do not have direct access.

2. Depends on why you need the money, if you have collateral or not, if you've got funds with the bank or not. If you've got a functioning business that's generating revenue or not. It's not as hard as most people believe.

Remember the bankers will help you draft up the loan request to better the odds of approval for the loan committee. You can ask them for examples of proposals the committee has approved. The reason is the banks HAVE to loan the money (money supply) AND the bankers get BONUSES and their commissions on the size of the loan they give you. So it's in their best interest to give you money, that's where the money supply goes, all banks NEVER hit their lending goal of how much money they want to lend out simply because people are scared of banks.

3. You can get really creative, I've seen no principle payment for 2-3 years, just interest. But again it depends on the bank you call and what you ask for. If you call on 300 banks and have a business that's generating revenue more than 70%-90% will fight to let them be the bank be the borrow. This goes into contrary conventional thinking that stems from people thinking "banks are bad".

As long as you aren't an idiot and have decent credit it's relatively smooth sailing. What's an idiot? Walking in dress liked a beach bum and talking like you have no sense. Dress like a banker and you'll get banker money. Anyone that's ever met me IRL knows I wear a suit and tie, or at the very least business attire even if I'm meeting you for a simple lunch, even on the weekends. If you walk into a bank with a t-shirt and jeans, have no track record, and no real sense of responsibility you aren't going to get the money.

I get emails all day from bridge loan and commercial lenders looking to give money, just from SPAM. If you have no banking contacts try LinkedIn and go from there. Remember they NEED the commission, and when someone needs the commission it's not rocket surgery.
 

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last time i seen shit like this is right before a country's money became worthless and was replaced with a different fiat. ie the iraqi dinar with saddam's face on it( it was debased like crazy before all of it went down), was replaced with a new brand of paper money, the old shit was blowing in the wind down the streets like confedi...

purchasing power per dollar being decimated big time right now. backdoor robbery big time. this shit is insane whats going on. I took a friend of mine out for BK (i dont normally eat that garbage but thats what they wanted) i got a whopper jr meal and they got the normal whopper meal and was like 20$, not a big deal but i thought that was insane on the price hike/loss of purchasing power of my dollar.

My nephews girlfriend just got a job at wendys, starting wage for her was $19/hr... WTF?!?! lol

the usd is going the way of zimbabwe money.
 
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Sutra

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1. During COVID banks are used to communicating with skype/zoom now, so it's more than possible. Harder if you permanently live remote, HOWEVER banks have associating/affiliate banks in different countries that help them do deals if they don't have a presence in your particular country.

No lie they are called "Affiliate banks": Affiliate

In banking, affiliate banks are popular for underwriting securities and entering foreign markets where other banks do not have direct access.

2. Depends on why you need the money, if you have collateral or not, if you've got funds with the bank or not. If you've got a functioning business that's generating revenue or not. It's not as hard as most people believe.

Remember the bankers will help you draft up the loan request to better the odds of approval for the loan committee. You can ask them for examples of proposals the committee has approved. The reason is the banks HAVE to loan the money (money supply) AND the bankers get BONUSES and their commissions on the size of the loan they give you. So it's in their best interest to give you money, that's where the money supply goes, all banks NEVER hit their lending goal of how much money they want to lend out simply because people are scared of banks.

3. You can get really creative, I've seen no principle payment for 2-3 years, just interest. But again it depends on the bank you call and what you ask for. If you call on 300 banks and have a business that's generating revenue more than 70%-90% will fight to let them be the bank be the borrow. This goes into contrary conventional thinking that stems from people thinking "banks are bad".

As long as you aren't an idiot and have decent credit it's relatively smooth sailing. What's an idiot? Walking in dress liked a beach bum and talking like you have no sense. Dress like a banker and you'll get banker money. Anyone that's ever met me IRL knows I wear a suit and tie, or at the very least business attire even if I'm meeting you for a simple lunch, even on the weekends. If you walk into a bank with a t-shirt and jeans, have no track record, and no real sense of responsibility you aren't going to get the money.

I get emails all day from bridge loan and commercial lenders looking to give money, just from SPAM. If you have no banking contacts try LinkedIn and go from there. Remember they NEED the commission, and when someone needs the commission it's not rocket surgery.
Awesome, thank you for the in-depth reply. That's very helpful. Gonna start contacting banks and affiliate banks.
 

CCarter

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Lights Out In Lebanon

The outage will reportedly continue for a few days, as Lebanon struggles with a fuel shortage that has forced many businesses to close and left people relying on the black market.

Lebanon's electricity grid has shut down entirely after the country's two main power stations ran out of fuel.

The al Zahrani and the Deir Ammar power stations stopped working after supplies of diesel were apparently exhausted, and energy production dropped to below 200 megawatts.

"The Lebanese power network completely stopped working at noon today (10am UK time), and it is unlikely that it will work until next Monday, or for several days," the official said.

The thermoelectric plant stopped at Zahrani power station just a day after the Deir Ammar plant stopped on Friday due to a fuel shortage.

The state electric company will try to use the army's fuel oil reserve to operate the power plants temporarily but this will not happen anytime soon, the official said.

It comes as Lebanon struggles with a fuel shortage that has forced many businesses to close and left people relying on the black market.


Lebanon power: Total outage as electricity grid shuts down after running out of fuel

--

Reports say the electric company is going to allow 4 hours per day of electricity until they get enough fuel.

UK short 2 million employees and petro

Meanwhile the UK has resorted to using the Army to delivery fuel (Source: Britain deploys its army to deliver fuel as panic buying and shortages continue).

The U.K. has an estimated shortage of 100,000 truck drivers, which has disrupted the delivery of fuel, food and goods around the country. Brexit, regulatory changes and the Covid-19 pandemic are among the issues contributing to the issue.

You are short 100,000 drivers? I'm not mathematical expert or rocket surgeon, but that's a lot of people. Let's dive deeper: UK needs nearly TWO MILLION workers: Active job posts reveal bosses are crying out for 55,019 care staff, 36, 471 chefs, 32,615 sales assistants - amid urgent calls to relax immigration rules to ease crisis

Meanwhile, Government officials are said to be growing increasingly concerned about the possibility of a 'winter of discontent' this year, with supermarkets warning of food shortages and more energy firms went bust amid rising gas prices.

..

Which industries are looking for new staff?

Care workers: 55,019

Chefs: 36,471

Primary school teachers: 32,942

Metal workers: 22,956

Cleaners: 28,220

HGV drivers: 7,513

Bar staff: 6,557

Sales assistants: 32,615

School secretaries: 2,678

Lollipop men and women: 2,478

Postal workers: 2,251

Lollipop men and women? WTF? See this is why the world doesn't take Britain seriously anymore.

He also claimed transport firms were offering huge salaries in a bid to entice drivers who have left the industry to come back - with one 'top milk firm' apparently offering as much as '£78,000-a-year'.

Meanwhile, one vegetable firm in Lincolnshire is currently advertising a broccoli picker role for £30-per-hour - equivalent to around £62,000-a-year.

They seem to be offering a good chunk of money, but people aren't biting I guess. £30-per-hour to pick broccoli, wow.

Care homes could close this winter because they face a crippling 100 per cent rise in their heating bills, bosses have warned.

Melanie Weatherby, co-chair of the Care Association Alliance, said the soaring price of wholesale gas could be the 'straw that breaks the camel's back'.

On average, a care home with 50 residents spends around £50,000 per year on gas and electricity bills.

I guess grandma is coming to live back home...

Meanwhile in the USA the Army is being used to deliver kids to schools. The Army, the army, the army...
 

CCarter

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When I say the Chinese aren't messing around, I ain't bullshit. Not only do they control the world supply of semiconductors, they now have a hypersonic missile:


'We have no idea how they did this': Secret hypersonic launch shows China streaking ahead in arms race
- The nuclear-capable missile circled the entire Earth at low orbit before descending on its target, ultimately missing by 20 miles

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They got a missile that can circle the earth at 5x the speed of sound...

"We have no idea how they did this" - those words don't exactly inspire confidence that we have our house in order in this matter.

Meanwhile people are wasting time trying to cancel Dave Chappelle cause of pronoun usage or some shit. The god-damn shelves are empty!

Wow. Let's go Brandon!

If you guys don't wake up this is where we are heading:


Thanks Brandon!

And Now Twix is woke!


Fucking Twix... Really? Thanks Brandon.

The Brandon situation is getting very interesting. Itunes Charts' #2 is... "Let's Go Brandon":

hhT0yBG.jpg

source: Itunes: Oct 17th, 2021

--

And then the Canadians, got plenty of time on their hands, ban any variations of "Let's Go Brandon" from government employees: Canada Threatens Federal Employees Using 'Any Variation' of 'Let's Go Brandon,' in Correspondence

The Chinese are launching hypersonic missiles while controlling the semiconductor market, and you've got Empty Shelves at grocery stores, but THESE "hurt feeling" topics are what we are concerning ourselves with.

Let's Go Brandon!

j4cUpwt.jpg
 

CCarter

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M2 money supply is at 5 trillion, 3 trillion more than before the pandemic, what does that mean? 60% of all US dollars printed since the beginning of the USA, was printed in 2020 and 2021.

Now you don't have to be a mathematical genuis here to figure out we, I mean, YOU, are fucked, not me.

Listen carefully to what he says is happening to all that money, it's sitting in BANKS and getting use to buy real estate, crypto, stocks, etc. When I say there is free money and they are just printing it, I ain't bullshitting!


As Dan Peña would scream: "WHAT are you going to do?!?! They are giving the money away. We are in the greatest transformation of wealth, what are you going to tell your grandkids you did? 'Oh I watched Netflix with both thumbs up my ass.'"

Some of these clowns are taking loans and buying cryptocurrency with, as crypto goes up, they pay off the loans easily and profit. But what the crypto crowd isn't telling you, 90% of bitcoin are on margins, basically if that price goes down they need to come up with the money. That's why the swings are so great.

Now should you take out a loan and buy crypto? fuck no. Shit is rat poison squared.

Just understand what's going on out there, people are using the money supply to buy up shit left and right. But you're more excited about the Game of Thrones prequel coming out soon.... or Home Alone 6... wow.

You guys are getting left behind.

Don't look back on your life and ask yourself why you spent so much time watching TV and scrolling through social media.
 

CCarter

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what are you buying with the loans you take out ccarter?

I'm going to skim close to what I'm into, because I don't want you guys necessarily competing. You'd be surprised at how many people will try to screw over other's businesses online with just a little detail of an operation. I've had multiple people come down to Florida and want to meet randomly just because they knew I lived in Florida. What? Why? Just randomly show up, "let's have dinner". People do weird shit, so, mind you I'm giving some tidbits. Here is the model, QLA obviously, - using low low numbers:

Here is a business selling for $140K, doing $123K in cash flow (the owner is taking home $123K). Now you don't have to be a genius to figure this out: Moving Broker Established

A $140K loan at 6% interest for 5 years comes to $2,706.59 monthly payments (a little more with fees). Yet the owner is taking home $10,250 per month. Here cashflow covers debt service by 3.79x. (Business Loan Calculator)

You want to look for businesses with 3-10 employees or more, hire a manager, and then give the employees an added incentive like 10% profit share monthly AFTER they increase revenue/profit by 15%. What does that mean? Increasing revenue by 15 would mean the owner's take home is now $11,787.50, Then since you promised the employees profit share, they get $1,178.75 - divided by the number of employees. If there are 5, that's a $235.75 monthly bonus for each. It sounds ridiculously low but that's a lot of money for a good chunk of people that work hourly on top of their paycheck.

So now the employees have an incentive to keep growing the business, and you can move on to buying other similar businesses and offering the same situation. You added $358.75 to the cashflow to debt services for your added, but as the business continues to grow you'll be easily able to pay off the debt.

Now there are loans where you only pay the interest and don't have to pay the principle off for 2-4 years. You literally can ask the bank to make the first payment in 6 or 12 months as well. They do all sort of crazy stuff like that IF you ask.

Another thing, you can also instead of asking for $140K ask for $280K, 200%, because again cashflow will STILL cover debt service: $5,413.18 monthly payment against $10,608.75 cash flow.

Again we are using low numbers so you guys understand how the model works.

That is not even getting into seller finance, this is just commercial loans. Seller finance is the seller gives you the business, maybe with 10, 20% or even 0% down, and you make monthly or quarterly payments until the note is paid off, skipping the banks completely.

And no, you don't need a down payment on business loans, again if you negotiate and KNOW in your heart you don't. (Also this is NOT a turn-around model, in a turn-around model the bank will require an equity infusion - a down payment, and that down payment is coming from YOU).

There is a massive difference between a Rufus Dufus mortgage loan and a business loan. A house, unless it is rented, does not generate daily revenue. You only make a "profit" when you sell the piece of shit house. A business generates DAILY revenue and therefore can grow. That's why Mr. Rufus Dufus needs a down payment and they have to verify income. Of course the bank is going to verify income of the business and they'll see you are asking for a loan that is easily covered by the cashflow.

Now you are wondering, that's fine, but how many of these businesses are there? MILLIONS, just in the USA. As long as cash flow covers debt service you are good. Something to consider: 95% of all businesses for sell never get sold, why? Because the owner is asking too much, way more than 3-5x cashflow.

More quick searches will show you there are millions of businesses literally selling for less than 2x cashflow (a birds nest on the ground):

Business asking for $200K against $135K cashflow (1.48x): Transportation Business for Sale in New Jersey

Business asking for $179K against $119K cashflow (1.5x): *Price Drop* Established & Profitable College H.U.N.K.S. Franchise

Here are businesses literally asking for less money than a year's revenue! (Literally 2 bird nests in your hands):

Business asking for $49,990 against $51,388 cashflow (0.97x): Expert Moving & Storage Company

Business asking for $99k against $99,759 cashflow (0.99x) [Seller financing available.]: Profitable Interstate Moving Company - Net over $100,000 from home

Business asking for $129K against $173K cashflow (0.75x): Home Moving Business For Sale, $170,000 / Year NET INCOME !!!

Why would anyone want do give away businesses for less than they make a year? Because some people are desparate and/or need to get out of the business for personal reasons.

And the crazy thing is, these are just quick searches found in 5 mins. These are businesses advertising they are for sell, QLA is about cold calling businesses owners that may not even know they want to get out or have thought of selling but no one is knocking on their door.

There are other websites and business brokers that sell businesses as well, here is another example:

Business asking for $315K against $125,754 cashflow (2.5x): FedEx Routes - $315,000 - Sanford Depot - Seminole County

The crazy thing is most businesses sell for 3-5x cashflow. Notice everything I listed is literally below 2.5x and some negative!


Something to consider, in the online world, most websites sell for 33 to 36 times monthly profits. That would be 3.3x to 3.6x cashflow when annualized. There are literally businesses that sell for a lot less as you can see above.

Is this model possible for online businesses? Of course. As long as the cashflow covers debt services, the numbers make sense then yes.

Also there is nothing stopping you from getting 10 year loans instead of 5.

The biggest problem is you have to run these pieces of shits and anyone that has employees knows the biggest problem are the employees. My style solves this by using the profit share incentive to keep them wanting to make more money. But you have to follow the 7 steps, put your dream team/board together, get lawyers and accountants on board, and laser beam focus on winning.

But regardless of the QLA model, as long as cash flow covers debt service the opportunities are out there.

One thing you'll have to do is your due diligence, never trust an owner or broker and your team should be experienced to figure this out, example:

Business asking for $380K against $600K cashflow (0.63x) [Seller financing available.]: Disruptive, High-Margin, Semi-Absentee Franchise in East Bay Area

Your spidey sense should tell you that something is off when a business doing $600K in cashflow is being sold for almost half. BUT the owners might have a really good reason. That $600K cashflow is in the Houston Texas area, but this is being sold in California. Look closely and investigate. Pass on franchises.

Business asking for $225K against $150K cashflow (1.5x): Small Trucking Company For Sale in Lake County Illinois

Business asking for $175K against $144,529 cashflow (1.21x) [Seller financing available.]: Essential trucking school with increasing revenue and profit

Business asking for $300K against $150K cashflow (2x) [Seller financing available with $198,000 down payment.]: Auto Repair Center in Suffolk County, NY

Business asking for $435K against $168063 cashflow (2.59x): FedEx Routes - $435,000 - Sanford Depot - Seminole County

Business asking for $375K against $180022 cashflow (2.09x) [Seller financing available with $90,000 down payment.]: Auto Glass Repair & Replacement

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Don't take my word for it, go talk to a commercial banker, not a mortgage broker, and give them the parameters above and ask if it's possible. Contact them on fucking LinkedIn.

All you need is a fucking calculator (Business Loan Calculator) and browse through these businesses for sale sites. I'm literally finding the above listings in seconds. And we haven't cold called anyone yet.

It's the roll-up Andrew Carnegie model. Buy businesses in a sector, roll them up under an umbrella company then sell them off to an industry giant or insurance company or private equity company for 12x EBITDA (~cashflow).

There is a lot more nuances if you look into the QLA model like setting up your board, and a ton of emotional bank account shit, cause really you are going to have lots of employees and have to manage them. Should be short work for people that can manage and organize.

I dedicate Tuesday and Thursday nights to this.

So there is the blueprint for the M&A model. Good luck and godspeed.