Semiconductor Shortage = Trouble

CCarter

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1) I'm from the US but live abroad. Is it possible for me to get a loan with a US bank online, or would I need to do it in person?
2) I've never taken out a loan before. How likely would I be able to get a loan for $1million?
3)In the current climate, what is the general repay period for the loans?

1. During COVID banks are used to communicating with skype/zoom now, so it's more than possible. Harder if you permanently live remote, HOWEVER banks have associating/affiliate banks in different countries that help them do deals if they don't have a presence in your particular country.

No lie they are called "Affiliate banks": Affiliate

In banking, affiliate banks are popular for underwriting securities and entering foreign markets where other banks do not have direct access.

2. Depends on why you need the money, if you have collateral or not, if you've got funds with the bank or not. If you've got a functioning business that's generating revenue or not. It's not as hard as most people believe.

Remember the bankers will help you draft up the loan request to better the odds of approval for the loan committee. You can ask them for examples of proposals the committee has approved. The reason is the banks HAVE to loan the money (money supply) AND the bankers get BONUSES and their commissions on the size of the loan they give you. So it's in their best interest to give you money, that's where the money supply goes, all banks NEVER hit their lending goal of how much money they want to lend out simply because people are scared of banks.

3. You can get really creative, I've seen no principle payment for 2-3 years, just interest. But again it depends on the bank you call and what you ask for. If you call on 300 banks and have a business that's generating revenue more than 70%-90% will fight to let them be the bank be the borrow. This goes into contrary conventional thinking that stems from people thinking "banks are bad".

As long as you aren't an idiot and have decent credit it's relatively smooth sailing. What's an idiot? Walking in dress liked a beach bum and talking like you have no sense. Dress like a banker and you'll get banker money. Anyone that's ever met me IRL knows I wear a suit and tie, or at the very least business attire even if I'm meeting you for a simple lunch, even on the weekends. If you walk into a bank with a t-shirt and jeans, have no track record, and no real sense of responsibility you aren't going to get the money.

I get emails all day from bridge loan and commercial lenders looking to give money, just from SPAM. If you have no banking contacts try LinkedIn and go from there. Remember they NEED the commission, and when someone needs the commission it's not rocket surgery.
 

mj22

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last time i seen shit like this is right before a country's money became worthless and was replaced with a different fiat. ie the iraqi dinar with saddam's face on it( it was debased like crazy before all of it went down), was replaced with a new brand of paper money, the old shit was blowing in the wind down the streets like confedi...

purchasing power per dollar being decimated big time right now. backdoor robbery big time. this shit is insane whats going on. I took a friend of mine out for BK (i dont normally eat that garbage but thats what they wanted) i got a whopper jr meal and they got the normal whopper meal and was like 20$, not a big deal but i thought that was insane on the price hike/loss of purchasing power of my dollar.

My nephews girlfriend just got a job at wendys, starting wage for her was $19/hr... WTF?!?! lol

the usd is going the way of zimbabwe money.
 
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Sutra

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1. During COVID banks are used to communicating with skype/zoom now, so it's more than possible. Harder if you permanently live remote, HOWEVER banks have associating/affiliate banks in different countries that help them do deals if they don't have a presence in your particular country.

No lie they are called "Affiliate banks": Affiliate

In banking, affiliate banks are popular for underwriting securities and entering foreign markets where other banks do not have direct access.

2. Depends on why you need the money, if you have collateral or not, if you've got funds with the bank or not. If you've got a functioning business that's generating revenue or not. It's not as hard as most people believe.

Remember the bankers will help you draft up the loan request to better the odds of approval for the loan committee. You can ask them for examples of proposals the committee has approved. The reason is the banks HAVE to loan the money (money supply) AND the bankers get BONUSES and their commissions on the size of the loan they give you. So it's in their best interest to give you money, that's where the money supply goes, all banks NEVER hit their lending goal of how much money they want to lend out simply because people are scared of banks.

3. You can get really creative, I've seen no principle payment for 2-3 years, just interest. But again it depends on the bank you call and what you ask for. If you call on 300 banks and have a business that's generating revenue more than 70%-90% will fight to let them be the bank be the borrow. This goes into contrary conventional thinking that stems from people thinking "banks are bad".

As long as you aren't an idiot and have decent credit it's relatively smooth sailing. What's an idiot? Walking in dress liked a beach bum and talking like you have no sense. Dress like a banker and you'll get banker money. Anyone that's ever met me IRL knows I wear a suit and tie, or at the very least business attire even if I'm meeting you for a simple lunch, even on the weekends. If you walk into a bank with a t-shirt and jeans, have no track record, and no real sense of responsibility you aren't going to get the money.

I get emails all day from bridge loan and commercial lenders looking to give money, just from SPAM. If you have no banking contacts try LinkedIn and go from there. Remember they NEED the commission, and when someone needs the commission it's not rocket surgery.
Awesome, thank you for the in-depth reply. That's very helpful. Gonna start contacting banks and affiliate banks.
 

CCarter

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Lights Out In Lebanon

The outage will reportedly continue for a few days, as Lebanon struggles with a fuel shortage that has forced many businesses to close and left people relying on the black market.

Lebanon's electricity grid has shut down entirely after the country's two main power stations ran out of fuel.

The al Zahrani and the Deir Ammar power stations stopped working after supplies of diesel were apparently exhausted, and energy production dropped to below 200 megawatts.

"The Lebanese power network completely stopped working at noon today (10am UK time), and it is unlikely that it will work until next Monday, or for several days," the official said.

The thermoelectric plant stopped at Zahrani power station just a day after the Deir Ammar plant stopped on Friday due to a fuel shortage.

The state electric company will try to use the army's fuel oil reserve to operate the power plants temporarily but this will not happen anytime soon, the official said.

It comes as Lebanon struggles with a fuel shortage that has forced many businesses to close and left people relying on the black market.


Lebanon power: Total outage as electricity grid shuts down after running out of fuel

--

Reports say the electric company is going to allow 4 hours per day of electricity until they get enough fuel.

UK short 2 million employees and petro

Meanwhile the UK has resorted to using the Army to delivery fuel (Source: Britain deploys its army to deliver fuel as panic buying and shortages continue).

The U.K. has an estimated shortage of 100,000 truck drivers, which has disrupted the delivery of fuel, food and goods around the country. Brexit, regulatory changes and the Covid-19 pandemic are among the issues contributing to the issue.

You are short 100,000 drivers? I'm not mathematical expert or rocket surgeon, but that's a lot of people. Let's dive deeper: UK needs nearly TWO MILLION workers: Active job posts reveal bosses are crying out for 55,019 care staff, 36, 471 chefs, 32,615 sales assistants - amid urgent calls to relax immigration rules to ease crisis

Meanwhile, Government officials are said to be growing increasingly concerned about the possibility of a 'winter of discontent' this year, with supermarkets warning of food shortages and more energy firms went bust amid rising gas prices.

..

Which industries are looking for new staff?

Care workers: 55,019

Chefs: 36,471

Primary school teachers: 32,942

Metal workers: 22,956

Cleaners: 28,220

HGV drivers: 7,513

Bar staff: 6,557

Sales assistants: 32,615

School secretaries: 2,678

Lollipop men and women: 2,478

Postal workers: 2,251

Lollipop men and women? WTF? See this is why the world doesn't take Britain seriously anymore.

He also claimed transport firms were offering huge salaries in a bid to entice drivers who have left the industry to come back - with one 'top milk firm' apparently offering as much as '£78,000-a-year'.

Meanwhile, one vegetable firm in Lincolnshire is currently advertising a broccoli picker role for £30-per-hour - equivalent to around £62,000-a-year.

They seem to be offering a good chunk of money, but people aren't biting I guess. £30-per-hour to pick broccoli, wow.

Care homes could close this winter because they face a crippling 100 per cent rise in their heating bills, bosses have warned.

Melanie Weatherby, co-chair of the Care Association Alliance, said the soaring price of wholesale gas could be the 'straw that breaks the camel's back'.

On average, a care home with 50 residents spends around £50,000 per year on gas and electricity bills.

I guess grandma is coming to live back home...

Meanwhile in the USA the Army is being used to deliver kids to schools. The Army, the army, the army...
 

CCarter

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When I say the Chinese aren't messing around, I ain't bullshit. Not only do they control the world supply of semiconductors, they now have a hypersonic missile:


'We have no idea how they did this': Secret hypersonic launch shows China streaking ahead in arms race
- The nuclear-capable missile circled the entire Earth at low orbit before descending on its target, ultimately missing by 20 miles

--

They got a missile that can circle the earth at 5x the speed of sound...

"We have no idea how they did this" - those words don't exactly inspire confidence that we have our house in order in this matter.

Meanwhile people are wasting time trying to cancel Dave Chappelle cause of pronoun usage or some shit. The god-damn shelves are empty!

Wow. Let's go Brandon!

If you guys don't wake up this is where we are heading:


Thanks Brandon!

And Now Twix is woke!


Fucking Twix... Really? Thanks Brandon.

The Brandon situation is getting very interesting. Itunes Charts' #2 is... "Let's Go Brandon":

hhT0yBG.jpg

source: Itunes: Oct 17th, 2021

--

And then the Canadians, got plenty of time on their hands, ban any variations of "Let's Go Brandon" from government employees: Canada Threatens Federal Employees Using 'Any Variation' of 'Let's Go Brandon,' in Correspondence

The Chinese are launching hypersonic missiles while controlling the semiconductor market, and you've got Empty Shelves at grocery stores, but THESE "hurt feeling" topics are what we are concerning ourselves with.

Let's Go Brandon!

j4cUpwt.jpg
 

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It's all about Taiwan and the surrounding waters. This is why we cock blocked France and sold nuclear submarines to Australia. The build-up is real, and it's the new cold water war to keep any unification dream at bay. Vietnam/Japan working together.
 

CCarter

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M2 money supply is at 5 trillion, 3 trillion more than before the pandemic, what does that mean? 60% of all US dollars printed since the beginning of the USA, was printed in 2020 and 2021.

Now you don't have to be a mathematical genuis here to figure out we, I mean, YOU, are fucked, not me.

Listen carefully to what he says is happening to all that money, it's sitting in BANKS and getting use to buy real estate, crypto, stocks, etc. When I say there is free money and they are just printing it, I ain't bullshitting!


As Dan Peña would scream: "WHAT are you going to do?!?! They are giving the money away. We are in the greatest transformation of wealth, what are you going to tell your grandkids you did? 'Oh I watched Netflix with both thumbs up my ass.'"

Some of these clowns are taking loans and buying cryptocurrency with, as crypto goes up, they pay off the loans easily and profit. But what the crypto crowd isn't telling you, 90% of bitcoin are on margins, basically if that price goes down they need to come up with the money. That's why the swings are so great.

Now should you take out a loan and buy crypto? fuck no. Shit is rat poison squared.

Just understand what's going on out there, people are using the money supply to buy up shit left and right. But you're more excited about the Game of Thrones prequel coming out soon.... or Home Alone 6... wow.

You guys are getting left behind.

Don't look back on your life and ask yourself why you spent so much time watching TV and scrolling through social media.
 

CCarter

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what are you buying with the loans you take out ccarter?

I'm going to skim close to what I'm into, because I don't want you guys necessarily competing. You'd be surprised at how many people will try to screw over other's businesses online with just a little detail of an operation. I've had multiple people come down to Florida and want to meet randomly just because they knew I lived in Florida. What? Why? Just randomly show up, "let's have dinner". People do weird shit, so, mind you I'm giving some tidbits. Here is the model, QLA obviously, - using low low numbers:

Here is a business selling for $140K, doing $123K in cash flow (the owner is taking home $123K). Now you don't have to be a genius to figure this out: Moving Broker Established

A $140K loan at 6% interest for 5 years comes to $2,706.59 monthly payments (a little more with fees). Yet the owner is taking home $10,250 per month. Here cashflow covers debt service by 3.79x. (Business Loan Calculator)

You want to look for businesses with 3-10 employees or more, hire a manager, and then give the employees an added incentive like 10% profit share monthly AFTER they increase revenue/profit by 15%. What does that mean? Increasing revenue by 15 would mean the owner's take home is now $11,787.50, Then since you promised the employees profit share, they get $1,178.75 - divided by the number of employees. If there are 5, that's a $235.75 monthly bonus for each. It sounds ridiculously low but that's a lot of money for a good chunk of people that work hourly on top of their paycheck.

So now the employees have an incentive to keep growing the business, and you can move on to buying other similar businesses and offering the same situation. You added $358.75 to the cashflow to debt services for your added, but as the business continues to grow you'll be easily able to pay off the debt.

Now there are loans where you only pay the interest and don't have to pay the principle off for 2-4 years. You literally can ask the bank to make the first payment in 6 or 12 months as well. They do all sort of crazy stuff like that IF you ask.

Another thing, you can also instead of asking for $140K ask for $280K, 200%, because again cashflow will STILL cover debt service: $5,413.18 monthly payment against $10,608.75 cash flow.

Again we are using low numbers so you guys understand how the model works.

That is not even getting into seller finance, this is just commercial loans. Seller finance is the seller gives you the business, maybe with 10, 20% or even 0% down, and you make monthly or quarterly payments until the note is paid off, skipping the banks completely.

And no, you don't need a down payment on business loans, again if you negotiate and KNOW in your heart you don't. (Also this is NOT a turn-around model, in a turn-around model the bank will require an equity infusion - a down payment, and that down payment is coming from YOU).

There is a massive difference between a Rufus Dufus mortgage loan and a business loan. A house, unless it is rented, does not generate daily revenue. You only make a "profit" when you sell the piece of shit house. A business generates DAILY revenue and therefore can grow. That's why Mr. Rufus Dufus needs a down payment and they have to verify income. Of course the bank is going to verify income of the business and they'll see you are asking for a loan that is easily covered by the cashflow.

Now you are wondering, that's fine, but how many of these businesses are there? MILLIONS, just in the USA. As long as cash flow covers debt service you are good. Something to consider: 95% of all businesses for sell never get sold, why? Because the owner is asking too much, way more than 3-5x cashflow.

More quick searches will show you there are millions of businesses literally selling for less than 2x cashflow (a birds nest on the ground):

Business asking for $200K against $135K cashflow (1.48x): Transportation Business for Sale in New Jersey

Business asking for $179K against $119K cashflow (1.5x): *Price Drop* Established & Profitable College H.U.N.K.S. Franchise

Here are businesses literally asking for less money than a year's revenue! (Literally 2 bird nests in your hands):

Business asking for $49,990 against $51,388 cashflow (0.97x): Expert Moving & Storage Company

Business asking for $99k against $99,759 cashflow (0.99x) [Seller financing available.]: Profitable Interstate Moving Company - Net over $100,000 from home

Business asking for $129K against $173K cashflow (0.75x): Home Moving Business For Sale, $170,000 / Year NET INCOME !!!

Why would anyone want do give away businesses for less than they make a year? Because some people are desparate and/or need to get out of the business for personal reasons.

And the crazy thing is, these are just quick searches found in 5 mins. These are businesses advertising they are for sell, QLA is about cold calling businesses owners that may not even know they want to get out or have thought of selling but no one is knocking on their door.

There are other websites and business brokers that sell businesses as well, here is another example:

Business asking for $315K against $125,754 cashflow (2.5x): FedEx Routes - $315,000 - Sanford Depot - Seminole County

The crazy thing is most businesses sell for 3-5x cashflow. Notice everything I listed is literally below 2.5x and some negative!


Something to consider, in the online world, most websites sell for 33 to 36 times monthly profits. That would be 3.3x to 3.6x cashflow when annualized. There are literally businesses that sell for a lot less as you can see above.

Is this model possible for online businesses? Of course. As long as the cashflow covers debt services, the numbers make sense then yes.

Also there is nothing stopping you from getting 10 year loans instead of 5.

The biggest problem is you have to run these pieces of shits and anyone that has employees knows the biggest problem are the employees. My style solves this by using the profit share incentive to keep them wanting to make more money. But you have to follow the 7 steps, put your dream team/board together, get lawyers and accountants on board, and laser beam focus on winning.

But regardless of the QLA model, as long as cash flow covers debt service the opportunities are out there.

One thing you'll have to do is your due diligence, never trust an owner or broker and your team should be experienced to figure this out, example:

Business asking for $380K against $600K cashflow (0.63x) [Seller financing available.]: Disruptive, High-Margin, Semi-Absentee Franchise in East Bay Area

Your spidey sense should tell you that something is off when a business doing $600K in cashflow is being sold for almost half. BUT the owners might have a really good reason. That $600K cashflow is in the Houston Texas area, but this is being sold in California. Look closely and investigate. Pass on franchises.

Business asking for $225K against $150K cashflow (1.5x): Small Trucking Company For Sale in Lake County Illinois

Business asking for $175K against $144,529 cashflow (1.21x) [Seller financing available.]: Essential trucking school with increasing revenue and profit

Business asking for $300K against $150K cashflow (2x) [Seller financing available with $198,000 down payment.]: Auto Repair Center in Suffolk County, NY

Business asking for $435K against $168063 cashflow (2.59x): FedEx Routes - $435,000 - Sanford Depot - Seminole County

Business asking for $375K against $180022 cashflow (2.09x) [Seller financing available with $90,000 down payment.]: Auto Glass Repair & Replacement

--

Don't take my word for it, go talk to a commercial banker, not a mortgage broker, and give them the parameters above and ask if it's possible. Contact them on fucking LinkedIn.

All you need is a fucking calculator (Business Loan Calculator) and browse through these businesses for sale sites. I'm literally finding the above listings in seconds. And we haven't cold called anyone yet.

It's the roll-up Andrew Carnegie model. Buy businesses in a sector, roll them up under an umbrella company then sell them off to an industry giant or insurance company or private equity company for 12x EBITDA (~cashflow).

There is a lot more nuances if you look into the QLA model like setting up your board, and a ton of emotional bank account shit, cause really you are going to have lots of employees and have to manage them. Should be short work for people that can manage and organize.

I dedicate Tuesday and Thursday nights to this.

So there is the blueprint for the M&A model. Good luck and godspeed.
 

CCarter

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Let's check in with the Big Business and Big Gov. Let's look at what KPMG is up to:

MIT Predicted in 1972 That Society Will Collapse This Century. New Research Shows We're on Schedule.

A 1972 MIT study predicted that rapid economic growth would lead to societal collapse in the mid 21st century. A new paper shows we're unfortunately right on schedule.

..

The controversial MIT analysis generated heated debate, and was widely derided at the time by pundits who misrepresented its findings and methods. But the analysis has now received stunning vindication from a study written by a senior director at professional services giant KPMG, one of the 'Big Four' accounting firms as measured by global revenue.

..

The study was published in the Yale Journal of Industrial Ecology in November 2020 and is available on the KPMG website. It concludes that the current business-as-usual trajectory of global civilization is heading toward the terminal decline of economic growth within the coming decade—and at worst, could trigger societal collapse by around 2040.

The study represents the first time a top analyst working within a mainstream global corporate entity has taken the ‘limits to growth' model seriously. Its author, Gaya Herrington, is Sustainability and Dynamic System Analysis Lead at KPMG in the United States. However, she decided to undertake the research as a personal project to understand how well the MIT model stood the test of time.

..

Study author Gaya Herrington told Motherboard that in the MIT World3 models, collapse “does not mean that humanity will cease to exist,” but rather that “economic and industrial growth will stop, and then decline, which will hurt food production and standards of living… In terms of timing, the BAU2 scenario shows a steep decline to set in around 2040.

..

The best available data suggests that what we decide over the next 10 years will determine the long-term fate of human civilization. Although the odds are on a knife-edge, Herrington pointed to a “rapid rise” in environmental, social and good governance priorities as a basis for optimism, signalling the change in thinking taking place in both governments and businesses. She told me that perhaps the most important implication of her research is that it's not too late to create a truly sustainable civilization that works for all.

-

I hate to say this but I'm not putting my faith in the hands other humans. KPMG and MIT gives us 10 years to get our shit together. I take that to mean that I need to make sure me and my family are operating at a level beyond this continuum to stay above water and sustain a level of living that's more than just comfortable.

That means for the next 10 years I'm going to be a madman in the digital mines and outside those mines, a route I'm already transversing.

It's a bit ironic because the MIT study from the 70s didn't predict a global pandemic, so... I guess you fucks better get to work.

--

What's my guy Jamie Dimon up to at JP Morgan:


JP Morgan says the pandemic will be over in 2022 and things will be back to normal globally... Okay.

That claim sounds - dubious at best.

UxfBiKv.gif

Let's take a look at the M1 money supply real quick:

algdLP4.png

So we jumped from a little under $5 trillion in supply, to over $20 trillion in US dollars floating around. I don't think anything is going back to normal anytime soon.

Have you ever seen a reversal of the money supply?

To put it in the most absolute layman terms, that item that cost "almost" $5 will eventually cost over $20. Inflation hasn't caught up to the $20 yet, but we are seeing it at the supermarket where prices are up at minimum 25%. It'll catch up when prices are at 400%.

You have to wonder if these people know what true inflation really is:


Thanks. Thanks for that.

A quick study of recent hyper-inflation:


Eerie similarity to what's going on...

--

And how have all these policies over the last 5 decades faired on a global scale?

China overtakes US as world's richest

China has overtaken the United States as the world's richest country, a recent report by the research arm of consultants McKinsey & Co. revealed. The study examined the balance sheets of 10 countries representing over 60% of world income. It said that global wealth has tripled in the last two decades and China accounted for almost one-third of this global increase.

Why does this story matter?

China's wealth has ballooned from a mere $7 trillion in 2000 to $120 trillion in 2020.

Comparatively, the US could only double-up its wealth during the same period.

Source: China overtakes US as world's richest; experts sound caution

This is like being on the Titanic and knowing there is an iceberg 100 miles up-ahead, and we are just standing around arguing about pronouns and misgendering narcissist that are looking for attention, meanwhile everyone in charge of the ship is drunk and partying.

Lf0ghcT.gif

You guys got 10 years, get your house in order, and get off the sinking boat!
 
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^^ Glad I live on land that has timber, wildlife, huge lake and streams, and more.

I just need to stockpile more ammo now.
 
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I'm going to skim close to what I'm into, because I don't want you guys necessarily competing. You'd be surprised at how many people will try to screw over other's businesses online with just a little detail of an operation. I've had multiple people come down to Florida and want to meet randomly just because they knew I lived in Florida. What? Why? Just randomly show up, "let's have dinner". People do weird shit, so, mind you I'm giving some tidbits. Here is the model, QLA obviously, - using low low numbers:

Here is a business selling for $140K, doing $123K in cash flow (the owner is taking home $123K). Now you don't have to be a genius to figure this out: Moving Broker Established

A $140K loan at 6% interest for 5 years comes to $2,706.59 monthly payments (a little more with fees). Yet the owner is taking home $10,250 per month. Here cashflow covers debt service by 3.79x. (Business Loan Calculator)

You want to look for businesses with 3-10 employees or more, hire a manager, and then give the employees an added incentive like 10% profit share monthly AFTER they increase revenue/profit by 15%. What does that mean? Increasing revenue by 15 would mean the owner's take home is now $11,787.50, Then since you promised the employees profit share, they get $1,178.75 - divided by the number of employees. If there are 5, that's a $235.75 monthly bonus for each. It sounds ridiculously low but that's a lot of money for a good chunk of people that work hourly on top of their paycheck.

So now the employees have an incentive to keep growing the business, and you can move on to buying other similar businesses and offering the same situation. You added $358.75 to the cashflow to debt services for your added, but as the business continues to grow you'll be easily able to pay off the debt.

Now there are loans where you only pay the interest and don't have to pay the principle off for 2-4 years. You literally can ask the bank to make the first payment in 6 or 12 months as well. They do all sort of crazy stuff like that IF you ask.

Another thing, you can also instead of asking for $140K ask for $280K, 200%, because again cashflow will STILL cover debt service: $5,413.18 monthly payment against $10,608.75 cash flow.

Again we are using low numbers so you guys understand how the model works.

That is not even getting into seller finance, this is just commercial loans. Seller finance is the seller gives you the business, maybe with 10, 20% or even 0% down, and you make monthly or quarterly payments until the note is paid off, skipping the banks completely.

And no, you don't need a down payment on business loans, again if you negotiate and KNOW in your heart you don't. (Also this is NOT a turn-around model, in a turn-around model the bank will require an equity infusion - a down payment, and that down payment is coming from YOU).

There is a massive difference between a Rufus Dufus mortgage loan and a business loan. A house, unless it is rented, does not generate daily revenue. You only make a "profit" when you sell the piece of shit house. A business generates DAILY revenue and therefore can grow. That's why Mr. Rufus Dufus needs a down payment and they have to verify income. Of course the bank is going to verify income of the business and they'll see you are asking for a loan that is easily covered by the cashflow.

Now you are wondering, that's fine, but how many of these businesses are there? MILLIONS, just in the USA. As long as cash flow covers debt service you are good. Something to consider: 95% of all businesses for sell never get sold, why? Because the owner is asking too much, way more than 3-5x cashflow.

More quick searches will show you there are millions of businesses literally selling for less than 2x cashflow (a birds nest on the ground):

Business asking for $200K against $135K cashflow (1.48x): Transportation Business for Sale in New Jersey

Business asking for $179K against $119K cashflow (1.5x): *Price Drop* Established & Profitable College H.U.N.K.S. Franchise

Here are businesses literally asking for less money than a year's revenue! (Literally 2 bird nests in your hands):

Business asking for $49,990 against $51,388 cashflow (0.97x): Expert Moving & Storage Company

Business asking for $99k against $99,759 cashflow (0.99x) [Seller financing available.]: Profitable Interstate Moving Company - Net over $100,000 from home

Business asking for $129K against $173K cashflow (0.75x): Home Moving Business For Sale, $170,000 / Year NET INCOME !!!

Why would anyone want do give away businesses for less than they make a year? Because some people are desparate and/or need to get out of the business for personal reasons.

And the crazy thing is, these are just quick searches found in 5 mins. These are businesses advertising they are for sell, QLA is about cold calling businesses owners that may not even know they want to get out or have thought of selling but no one is knocking on their door.

There are other websites and business brokers that sell businesses as well, here is another example:

Business asking for $315K against $125,754 cashflow (2.5x): FedEx Routes - $315,000 - Sanford Depot - Seminole County

The crazy thing is most businesses sell for 3-5x cashflow. Notice everything I listed is literally below 2.5x and some negative!


Something to consider, in the online world, most websites sell for 33 to 36 times monthly profits. That would be 3.3x to 3.6x cashflow when annualized. There are literally businesses that sell for a lot less as you can see above.

Is this model possible for online businesses? Of course. As long as the cashflow covers debt services, the numbers make sense then yes.

Also there is nothing stopping you from getting 10 year loans instead of 5.

The biggest problem is you have to run these pieces of shits and anyone that has employees knows the biggest problem are the employees. My style solves this by using the profit share incentive to keep them wanting to make more money. But you have to follow the 7 steps, put your dream team/board together, get lawyers and accountants on board, and laser beam focus on winning.

But regardless of the QLA model, as long as cash flow covers debt service the opportunities are out there.

One thing you'll have to do is your due diligence, never trust an owner or broker and your team should be experienced to figure this out, example:

Business asking for $380K against $600K cashflow (0.63x) [Seller financing available.]: Disruptive, High-Margin, Semi-Absentee Franchise in East Bay Area

Your spidey sense should tell you that something is off when a business doing $600K in cashflow is being sold for almost half. BUT the owners might have a really good reason. That $600K cashflow is in the Houston Texas area, but this is being sold in California. Look closely and investigate. Pass on franchises.

Business asking for $225K against $150K cashflow (1.5x): Small Trucking Company For Sale in Lake County Illinois

Business asking for $175K against $144,529 cashflow (1.21x) [Seller financing available.]: Essential trucking school with increasing revenue and profit

Business asking for $300K against $150K cashflow (2x) [Seller financing available with $198,000 down payment.]: Auto Repair Center in Suffolk County, NY

Business asking for $435K against $168063 cashflow (2.59x): FedEx Routes - $435,000 - Sanford Depot - Seminole County

Business asking for $375K against $180022 cashflow (2.09x) [Seller financing available with $90,000 down payment.]: Auto Glass Repair & Replacement

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Don't take my word for it, go talk to a commercial banker, not a mortgage broker, and give them the parameters above and ask if it's possible. Contact them on fucking LinkedIn.

All you need is a fucking calculator (Business Loan Calculator) and browse through these businesses for sale sites. I'm literally finding the above listings in seconds. And we haven't cold called anyone yet.

It's the roll-up Andrew Carnegie model. Buy businesses in a sector, roll them up under an umbrella company then sell them off to an industry giant or insurance company or private equity company for 12x EBITDA (~cashflow).

There is a lot more nuances if you look into the QLA model like setting up your board, and a ton of emotional bank account shit, cause really you are going to have lots of employees and have to manage them. Should be short work for people that can manage and organize.

I dedicate Tuesday and Thursday nights to this.

So there is the blueprint for the M&A model. Good luck and godspeed.
Have you profited or made money from this type of business?

I was going to find Tom Nash's video on Dan Pena which showcased Dan Pena making like 1-3 Mil in Exiting his "350 Million Dollar Company" which shows up on Google. But looks like Tom Nash probably got threatened or someshit.

He also claims to have 900 testosterone levels at his age. This is not possible unless you take roids but even at his age, body fat % levels also matter when it comes to testosterone.

His story of fighting a bear doesn't even add up, he's made that up many times.

But, what about the fact he lives in a Castle? Castle in Ireland he used the company money to buy I believe.

You could say a lot of BS before when the internet wasn't a big thing, now people can fact check stuff. His advice makes sense but, the pure BS claims is insane.

Also he claims he could have retired a long time ago, I highly doubt that considering his castle takes 100k or more just to maintain or something.

Dan pena also claims that he's taught a lot of billionaires but then on Joe Rogan's podcasts he struggles to barely name a few. In a video with Grant Cardone it was a LONG time ago, he asked Dan Pena some questions about his business and he got all angry and stuff and AGAIN that video is taken down.

Also, Dan Pena claimed he couched 25 billionaires.

(1:50) Look at this video lol.
<- another video on him you should watch.
 

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That first video was a hilarious takedown of Jordan Belfort from someone who's been in the ring with him. I actually laughed out loud.

The second video was a pathetic and weak attack on someone where there's zero possibility of consequence or retaliation. It's like an ant talking shit about a giant among other ants. Congrats to him, the threat is out of the way and now he's king of the ants. This guy wants us to not do what Dan asks us to do, which is judge him on the success of his students. That's the entire point of being a coach, and the premise of the video is stupid. "Look how much he blinks" took the cake.
 

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Here is my question @freshpeppermint, why are you wasting any time on Dan Peña's claims?

Here is Dan saying his testosterone is over 2500:


How does his testosterone level make you a single dollar? If it's 2500, 1800, 1500, 900, or even 1 - how does that answer make you a single dollar?

Are you and I going to take Dan down to a doctor, of your choosing, take his blood sample and get his testosterone level to prove his claim? And even then you might still not believe it.

And who gives a fuck? Some psychopathic 76+ year old Mexican that lives in a castle in Scotland claims his testosterone is 1800. SO? That doesn't make you a single dollar. You are not focused on your goals in life when you have energy to put towards online conspiracies.

I personally don't give a fuck about Dan Peña testosterone levels. I only care about extracting as much information about playing the financial orchestra to get as much money out of the banks as possible, that's it.

Focus! Focus motherfucker! This is why you are not winning, you aren't motherfucking focused.

It's your way of wasting time procrastinating from pulling the trigger. That's all it is. You could have spent 30-60 mins watching videos about Dan and reading blog posts and then come back saying "he's a fraud". Okay, fine.

If you REALLY wanted the truth you could have simply gone to the source, his website and YouTube channel. He's got thousands of videos from GWR and from his past on the internet. Here is Dan in Botswana on a Safari:


There are literally video evidence of a ton of claims.

To put it in another perspective: there are people that believe the Earth is flat. How does me putting any energy towards proving to people the earth is not flat make me a single dollar? How does that add value to my life, my family's lives, and towards my goals in life? It doesn't, so I don't waste time on it.

And why waste all that time and energy towards some obscure facts? Don't you get it, no one gives a fuck about you, no one gives a fuck about me, nor Dan Peña - the world only cares if you can get results. Whether you believe Dan or not isn't going to put a single dollar in my pocket. Don't believe him, who gives a fuck.

Your thought patterns are so fucked up that procrastination has been ingrained deep inside you - and you don't even realize it. You need to get to work.

Dan's primary messages can be broken down to the following:

1. Laser beam focus on your goals.

2. It's hard to make millions and billions of dollars, you have to work 100-120 hours a week - and no one wants to hear that, and even then you might fail.

3. There are no fucking shortcuts.

4. Take action even through the mist of fear.

5. Grow your fucking balls through success.

That's literally his messaging for anyone out there, whether you take his QLA seminar or not. Do you disagree with any of the above statements?

"When you have time to dispelling truth, forget about myth, your life is pretty fucked up." - Dan Peña

There are no shortcuts in life @freshpeppermint:


In 5, 10, and 20 years from now only you will care about whether you pulled the trigger on your dreams and goals or not. I won't care. Dan Peña certainly won't care. No one on this forum, if it's still around, is even going to remember you, let alone care about where you are in life.

The only person with whom your decisions to procrastinate or not that cares will be you.

So you have 2 choices, #1 take action or #2 don't.
 
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Here is my question @freshpeppermint, why are you wasting any time on Dan Peña's claims?

Here is Dan saying his testosterone is over 2500:


How does his testosterone level make you a single dollar? If it's 2500, 1800, 1500, 900, or even 1 - how does that answer make you a single dollar?

Are you and I going to take Dan down to a doctor, of your choosing, take his blood sample and get his testosterone level to prove his claim? And even then you might still not believe it.

And who gives a fuck? Some psychopathic 76+ year old Mexican that lives in a castle in Scotland claims his testosterone is 1800. SO? That doesn't make you a single dollar. You are not focused on your goals in life when you have energy to put towards online conspiracies.

I personally don't give a fuck about Dan Peña testosterone levels. I only care about extracting as much information about playing the financial orchestra to get as much money out of the banks as possible, that's it.

Focus! Focus motherfucker! This is why you are not winning, you aren't motherfucking focused.

It's your way of wasting time procrastinating from pulling the trigger. That's all it is. You could have spent 30-60 mins watching videos about Dan and reading blog posts and then come back saying "he's a fraud". Okay, fine.

If you REALLY wanted the truth you could have simply gone to the source, his website and YouTube channel. He's got thousands of videos from GWR and from his past on the internet. Here is Dan in Botswana on a Safari:


There are literally video evidence of a ton of claims.

To put it in another perspective: there are people that believe the Earth is flat. How does me putting any energy towards proving to people the earth is not flat make me a single dollar? How does that add value to my life, my family's lives, and towards my goals in life? It doesn't, so I don't waste time on it.

And why waste all that time and energy towards some obscure facts? Don't you get it, no one gives a fuck about you, no one gives a fuck about me, nor Dan Peña - the world only cares if you can get results. Whether you believe Dan or not isn't going to put a single dollar in my pocket. Don't believe him, who gives a fuck.

Your thought patterns are so fucked up that procrastination has been ingrained deep inside you - and you don't even realize it. You need to get to work.

Dan's primary messages can be broken down to the following:

1. Laser beam focus on your goals.
2. It's hard to make millions and billions of dollars, you have to work 100-120 hours a week - and no one wants to hear that, and even then you might fail.
3. There are no fucking shortcuts.
4. Take action even through the mist of fear.
5. Grow your fucking balls through success.

That's literally his messaging for anyone out there, whether you take his QLA seminar or not. Do you disagree with any of the above statements?

"When you have time to dispelling truth, forget about myth, your life is pretty fucked up." - Dan Peña

There are no shortcuts in life @freshpeppermint:


In 5, 10, and 20 years from now only you will care about whether you pulled the trigger on your dreams and goals or not. I won't care. Dan Peña certainly won't care. No one on this forum, if it's still around, is even going to remember you, let alone care about where you are in life.

The only person with whom your decisions to procrastinate or not that cares will be you.

So you have 2 choices, #1 take action or #2 don't.
No, I said this because of a lot of his dishonest claims. I dont think that the "QLA" business model works. (Not the motivational and other things)

If it was soo good why is he the only one teaching it and stuff? I barely hear any success stories from Dan Pena. Now you can't join his QLA program specifically to do the "QLA" acquiring business and then go and get success with SAAS or build your own company and say Oh that's the QLA model the Andrew Carnegie business model works.

That's why I asked if you have even made money from his QLA advice. (Not the primary message but the acquisition business model.)

His motivational advice and life advice/primary message is fine and makes sense but the business model he teachs is what I dont believe works.
 

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motivational advice

No one is here to convince you of anything.

Based on all your questions on this forum you barely believe people can make money with websites. If you have never heard of mergers and acquisitions and roll ups - well, okay.

And if you need motivation you are in a lot of trouble:


Perhaps you should concentrate on moving out of your parents home first, and finally enter adulthood instead of spending energy on disproving Dan Peña, perhaps...

Dan is not going to save you kid. I'm not going to save you. No one is coming to save you. You have to save yourself.
 

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The Fed’s Doomsday Prophet Has a Dire Warning About Where We’re Headed

Hoenig lost his fight. Throughout 2010, the FOMC votes were routinely 11 against one, with Hoenig being the one. He retired from the Fed in late 2011, and after that, a reputation hardened around Hoenig as the man who got it wrong. He is remembered as something like a cranky Old Testament prophet who warned incessantly, and incorrectly, about one thing: the threat of coming inflation.

But this version of history isn’t true. While Hoenig was concerned about inflation, that isn’t what solely what drove him to lodge his string of dissents. The historical record shows that Hoenig was worried primarily that the Fed was taking a risky path that would deepen income inequality, stoke dangerous asset bubbles and enrich the biggest banks over everyone else. He also warned that it would suck the Fed into a money-printing quagmire that the central bank would not be able to escape without destabilizing the entire financial system.

On all of these points, Hoenig was correct. And on all of these points, he was ignored. We are now living in a world that Hoenig warned about.

The Fed is now in a vise. Inflation is rising faster than the Fed believed it would even a few months ago, with higher prices for gas, goods and automobiles being fueled by the Fed’s unprecedented money printing programs. This comes after years of the Fed steadily pumping up the price of assets like stocks and bonds through its zero-percent interest rates and quantitative easing during and after Hoenig’s time on the FOMC. To respond to rising inflation, the Fed has signaled that it will start hiking interest rates next year. But if that happens, there is every reason to expect that it will cause stock and bond markets to fall, perhaps precipitously, or even cause a recession.

“There is no painless solution,” Hoenig said in a recent interview. “It’s going to be difficult. And the longer you wait the more painful it will end up being.”

To be clear, the kind of pain that Hoenig is talking about involves high unemployment, social instability and potentially years of economic malaise. Hoenig knows this because he has seen it before. He saw it during his long career at the Fed, and he saw it most acutely during the Great Inflation of the 1970s. That episode in history, which bears eerie parallels with the situation today, is the lodestar that ended up guiding so much of Hoenig’s thinking as a Fed official. It explains why he was willing to throw away his reputation as a team player in 2010, why he was willing to go down in history as a crank and why he was willing to accept the scorn of his colleagues and people like Bernanke.

Hoenig voted no because he’d seen firsthand what the consequences were when the Fed got things wrong, and kept money too easy for too long.


Source: The Fed’s Doomsday Prophet Has a Dire Warning About Where We’re Headed

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@CCarter

Amazing read and analysis. That Politico article is the most complete and accurate description of our wild financial times I've ever read. Great share!

Of course, the question is still "but when will they stop the printer?" because some guys have whined about it for 20 years and basically been sidelined for 20 years losing out on upside of a boom. Hoenig would probably be one of them. I'm all for realizing what is truth and what is fake, but I'd also like to exploit opportunities when they are there! Being too early means being wrong. Guys like Michael Burry were wrong for years before "The Big Short" played out. He's also been shorting the market in present day, and that hasn't been working out either for him. Timing.

The argument and pattern (seen in 70's) seems to boil down to this quote from article,

“The Great Inflation resulted from policy choices that placed much more weight on maintaining high or full employment than on preventing or reducing inflation,” Meltzer wrote. “For much of the period, this choice reflected both political pressures and popular opinion as expressed in polls.”

Keep unemployment rates low seems to always win this decision. However, perhaps if inflation gets too wild this time around there will be much more pressure to create a recession to help reign it in.
 

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Let's check in on Russia's plans...


"They'll be lined up against the wall and get shot."​

That video was from... Forty years ago. That means you have to add 2 more generations to the math.
 

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Biden administration to fund programs that hand out crack pipes to prevent infection and promote 'racial equity'

53897401-10487091-image-a-5_1644275622501.jpg

  • The $30 million grant program will distribute funds to nonprofits and local governments to make drug use safer and 'advance racial equity'
  • Included in the grant is money to purchase 'safe smoking kits/supplies'
  • A spokesperson for HHS said included in these kits could be pipes for users to smoke substances like crack cocaine and crystal methamphetamine
  • HHS said that the kits will serve to limit the risk of infection - typically users smoke out of glass pipes which can lead to cuts and sores that become infected
  • Handing out pipes is also intended to prompt users to smoke rather than inject themselves with some substances, like meth, as injection is far riskier
  • It is against the law to sell or distribute drug paraphernalia - including such pipes - unless authorized by state, local or federal law

Source: Biden administration to fund programs that hand out crack pipes to prevent infection and promote 'racial equity'

Best comment: "Your tax dollars up in smoke."

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President of Russia Vladimir Putin Warning of War If Ukraine joins NATO


I don't think the leadership of Europe understand a war with its' #1 supplier of energy is probably not going a good idea.

You thought it was lights out this winter...the REAL winter is coming, nuclear.

According to Eurostat, 30% of the EU's petroleum oil imports and 39% of total gas imports came from Russia in 2017. For Estonia, Poland, Slovakia and Finland, more than 75% of their imports of petroleum oils originated in Russia.

Source: Russia in the European energy sector

I wonder what the Taliban think...

HGvHIom.gif
 

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Special Edition: AT WAR

If you guys want a breakdown of what's up with Russia, Ukraine, and soon to be €2000 price per liter for petro in Europe - Kyla does a great breakdown: A Brief Update on Russia and Ukraine

It wasn't some coincidence that I started this thread off about semiconductors.

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Russia has sided with China that Taiwan is a part of China.

ahyuMBI.png

Taiwan accounts for 92% of the world's semiconductors capacity.

Russia supplies 30-40% of Europe’s natural gas. In the broad energy market, it supplies nearly a ~10% of the aluminum and copper, and produces 43% of palladium.

OwQdA3d.png

Russia accounts for 10% of US fuel (gas and diesel).

How does Europe and the US plan on going to war without fuel? Without tech? Without semiconductors? Please explain that to me.

A message from Putin:


"Whoever would try to stop us and further create threats to our country, to our people, should know that Russia's response will be immediate and lead you to such consequences that you have never faced in your history. We are ready for any outcome."

I wonder if there will be gender-fluid bathrooms for kids getting drafted. Ridiculous.

Let's look at our leadership:


Gotcha.

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When they start talking nuclear weapons are on the table... This isn't a fucking game now. It never was. And now look who's in charge of some of our nukes: Biden taps non-binary drag queen to look after nuclear waste: MIT graduate and 'kink activist' says it will be 'enormous challenge' to take on top level Department of Energy role

I'm not going to post photos, you guys click through at your own peril.

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What's going on here guys? Where is the line? What are we doing here? I heard of "Go Woke and Go broke"... but you want to take down the whole United States Empire... Doesn't seem... logical.

This is how Rome fell.

While political in-fighting started happening, people experimenting with sexuality, and a general descending into depravity, the Barbarians came from the north and sacked the place as Nero fiddled. But Rome and other empires fell long before the Barbarians. It was the financial over-extension of the empire that started the collapse.

For the first time in the US history US debt has gone over a 100% GDP:

lTq2Lot.jpg

Source: Deep Dive: US national debt hits 100% of GDP. Should the credit markets care?

This is what happens when you are too successful, you don't take serious threats seriously. Weakening of masculinity, leads to weak leaders, and allows others come and dominate the global political landscape.

What's the solution...?

oeyTUKW.jpg

And I'm not joking. That photo's funny for black history month though.

Just one more:


INB4, we're all cancelled, CCarter being at the top of that list.